monkey predictions for 2008, page-20

Can I say Charlie Aitkin is right but he doesnt know how right he is..

He makes a point about that thinking in terms of an overall index and buying an index is a recipe for failure. The future of Australia is splitting.

He says its about stock picking and staying bullish resources.. but its probably beyond that.. its probably even necessary to pick within resources. Each resource has a different dynamic.

Iron Ore: If those guys are being honest about iron ore expansion, the world is in for a huge oversupply. Once the chinese individual has urbanised and has his or her car, then where is the high ongoing demand for further iron ore from that individual. China and india would have to urbanise at an increasing rate to chew up the amount of ore they are projecting to pull out of the ground. Steel is recyclable

Coal: Once that individual has urbanised and they want to stay warm.. expect it then they need to stay warm in their new house year after year... Coal is on an exponential trajectory.. especially since no one wants a nuclear power station near them.

Zinc: Seems to be a lot of it. Still Zinc is used in galvanising to self sacrifice to protect the steel. Sorry, once its self sacrificed there is no recycling it.

Aluminium Cheap inputs excepting the cost of power. See Coal above.. There are no more cheap sources of power till people get over the nuclear mental block. Those hydro dams are why Rio is valuable .. not its iron ore.

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DYOR..just my thoughts.