Haven't posted in a long time as been mostly playing around with iron ore stocks rather than XJO in recent times.
As always though very useful and interesting reading on the XJO thread.
Noticed an exceptional post from "Wavepicker" on ASF about a month ago, identifying 11 March as a key date based on fib time extensions forward from the highs and lows since last June all converging/clustering on this date (though he got it wrong in terms of price - expecting a high). http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&page=143 (dated 10 Feb 10:31PM) Would be very interested in any views on his analysis (need to be a member to see the charts).
So if 11 March is a key low then that implies a rally from tomorrow and supports some of the slightly bullish/less bearish sentiment arising on this thread at the moment.
However, this seems very unlikely IMO as the daily MACDs on all the major indices have well and truly crossed down and weekly MACDs have all failed just as they were thinking about crossing up. So perhaps 11 March is important simply as the lower high from which we drop to the lows?? Or maybe its just wrong - I think he also had 23 March as an alternative date which probably ties in with Voltaire's timing I think.
IMO we have another 10% drop across all the indices, probably this week/possibly next, based on the breakouts from the congestion zones of the past 6 weeks and by extending down the length of previous up moves since last June.
I agree with 4700/4800/50 fib for XAO/XJO target (so 10% drop) although I think there is also a possibility we could hit 4400/4500 on the capitulation day (as we had a move of 1150 from 5650 - ignoring SFE-related push to 5500 - to 6800 and so down 1150 the other way says 4500 to me. Also, we have 6800, 6000, 5200 as all key levels so far so 4400 would also make sense.
HK looks pretty clear cut to me - by extension, a break of key 26000 support always suggested 20000 as the low - though again might actually go lower on the capitulation day. This is also consistent with a move out of its recent congestion zone and 50 fib retrace. So again at least another 10% drop.
I've also got similar 10% further drop targets for other indices all based on 1. extensions off previous up moves, 2. fib levels during bull run and 3. height of recent congestion zone all suggesting: eg. - Dow 11000 - Dax 6000 - Nikkei 11000
But, as Voltaire pointed out in a previous posts showing the bollinger bands, XJO (and XFJ) are just following the lower band - this is equivalent to the high risk catching a falling knife scenario - personally I don't buy a share or index until there's a clear big break down below the bollinger that hits a sensible target.
Not saying we won't get a bounce tonight - looks more likely than a fall - but the risk/reward is not worth it IMO as I certainly agree with HedgeJob that trend still says down in a big way.
Also, I still think the banks are not quite there yet - eg IMO NAB is going to $25 and the big miners have lots of downside - eg BHP back to $32 - although BHP/RIO currently sitting on their lower daily bollingers might give them a bounce tomorrow (though otherwise another decent fall).
So anyway - as aways just IMO and very happy to debate or discuss any of this.
(20min delay)