montgomery has exited, page-2

I am a big fan of Roger. Looks like he's abandoned gold completely. Roger says he never attempts to predict future price of stuff, yet he was among the first to say price of IO would fall, and sold out of MS stks. I believe he has a good methodology although i don't subscribe to skaffold. For me it's not just about the fundamentals and profitability of SLR as a company.... it's also a belief in gold as a commodity that will benefit from a future GFC. Loki (rightly) has pointed out that is past mkt collapses gold stks have also dived. Will next time be different? Who knows. My strategy is to have a long position in gold stks totalling 20% of portfolio. SLR remains my foundation goldie. After topping-up at 2.44 today my av price is 2.75. Obviously i entered SLR too early. Another week would have made a huge difference. Never expected SLR would fall this far. One positive is the very large vols. Clearly the stk attracts a lot of attn from funds and traders alike. It's now up to Les Davis to produce the goods as promised.

PS. In an earlier thread i wrote that "SLR had bought IGR for a pittance". I got my calcs badly wrong and feel a nitwit for misleading anyone. Apologies. I've gone back thru stuff and now feel SLR paid too much for IGR. About 25% too much considering everything at the time and 35% too much under current circumstances. Of course a rise in POG will change things substantially. It's very hard to forecast POG with any degree of confidence. I feel i need a profitable gold miner as part of my portfolio.... just in case.... whatever that means? But agree it's not a strategy for everyone and (apparently)not one for Roger either.

PPS. Consensus forecast on M.Star for FY14 EPS has dropped from 59.1c (7 days ago) to 51.3c now. Using the lower return puts SLR on fwd PE of 4.76.