monthly production report

The first of the lease by lease data is now available on the Texas RRC website.

First indications are that the August oil production numbers given by the company are understated.

I've listed below the data for May to August, Antares numbers, then my numbers to show how close the model was.

May 29687 - Mine 29408 (or 29648 if Dilworth 2 included)
Jun 26548 - Mine 26228 (or 26428 if Dilworth 2 included)
Jul 34429 - Mine 34260 (or 34544 if Dilworth 2 included)
Aug 27448 - Mine 28121 without any term assignment production which is roughly a combined 440 BO from the 457 & Dil 1 wells plus another 200+ BO from the Dil 2 well.

So it looks to me like production has been understated by about 1000 BO.

Southern Star production dropped by about 5,450 BO in August.

A significant gain in production came from the McNew lease +1300 BO thanks to it having a new well. Significant falls occurred at the Ray lease -1350 (27% fall) Aloe Vera -1500 BO and Yucca -3000 BO (a 50% fall).

The one piece of new that Antares did fail to mention in the report concerns natural gas.

The headline number only fell by 13 Million cubic feet, but that doesn't tell the true story. Nat gas production on the Ray lease dropped by 18 MMCF (a 33% fall) Aloe Vera production dropped by 12%, CR-21-B by 20%. However nat gas from the Yucca lease was finally connected to a sales pipe, so that provided a 7 MMCF uplift to the number, and they may have completed the Harrison No3 well in another zone, as oil production more than doubled and nat gas production increased 4 fold.

Its this large increase in Harrison nat gas production which is masking the true drop off in Permian Basin production last month.

The Stella Ray 5's rate of production has dropped markidly, will be interesting to see at what point the rapid decline slows down.

As for Archers only 382 barrels for the whole month. Where is the growth driver outside Southern Star?

Yes I'm looking forward to seeing the report, showing the expected decline curves for Southern Star etc. Yes there are some good wells but there are also some pretty poor ones as well.

LOTM