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mark79bond

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12/04/18

20:37

Post #: 32421316
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Originally posted by Atlas_J ↑

This is what I'm betting on.

My hypothesis (purely speculation)

Setting up and fine tuning the hammer mill and the rest of the flow sheet took a lot longer than they expected, but they didn't want to let the market know that because it would have jeopardized the VWAP for the capital raising. Not good for people that bought in during that period, but I can understand why the company did it. A bit iffy using words like "soon" but I suppose they are technically still staying within their continuous disclosure obligations if they don't have sufficient data for an announcement. The very late report that they had just started a second shift backs up this idea. This means that the real tonnage processing hasn't been happening as long as we all assumed.

If you believe this idea, now would be the time to buy. Personally, I have enough OGX in my portfolio so I'm not buying. I expect the price to drop the longer we go without news. However, if you keep in mind the fact that we are cash funded for eight months, we have lots of great historical exploration results, and we a JV with AngloGold, I consider a market cap below $75m ludicrously undervalued relative to ASX peers.

I'm not selling as my original investment thesis hasn't changed: Orinoco has found multiple potentially economic gold deposits and has a high (IMO) likelihood of finding more. It hurts to see a lot of red on the screen, which is why I don't spend hours on HC everyday.

Also, I find the speculation of a takeover offer highly unlikely. Orinoco isn't proved up enough yet for that. When we have some solid production data and more exploration results I'd consider that more likely.

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As far as I can see, they should have requested for a trading halt unless the information concerns an incomplete proposal or negotiation.

OGX Price at posting: 7.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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