Perhaps if we talk openly about monthly revenue, the company will see that there is now little point trying to avoid giving basic factual data to Investors on a monthly basis until they see the substantive growth kick-in, then they can revert to quarterly if they think it is no longer of use to investors.
So I'm going to start the ball rolling by posting the facts the company has revealed to us that allow us to plot the band that monthly revenue has fallen within for several months now.
The September quarterly report states "9 straight months of increasing revenue"
Quarterly revenue generated for the last 3 quarters (not to be confused with cash received during those quarter) is shown on page 3 of the same report. The figures are as follows.
Q3 = A$281,087
Q4 = A$432,3o9
Q1 = A$480,382
So just to be ultra clear, the revenue generated in Jan 2017 was higher than the revenue generated in Dec 2016, but is less than the revenue generated in Feb 2017 and than pattern repeats itself thereafter until we arrive at 30th Sept 2017.
Therefore the minimum amount of revenue that could possibly be generated in March 2017 is calculated by dividing the revenue for the quarter by 3, ie A$281,087 divided by 3 = A$93,695 (plus another couple of dollars as it has to be higher than the Jan & Feb numbers. At the same time it means the maximum revenue number for Jan is A$93,695 (minus a few dollars).
The data also tells us that the minimum amount of revenue that could possibly be generated in June 2017 is A$144,103 plus a couple of dollars (got by dividing A$432,309 by 3). It also means that the maximum revenue number for April is A$144,103 less a couple of dollars.
Similarly it means the minimum amount of revenue generated in Sept 2017 is A$160,127 plus a couple of dollars and the maximum revenue generated in July 2017 was A$160,127 less a couple of dollars.
Those are 6 key pieces of the jigsaw and they let us make the following deductions.
Since July's revenue can't be above A$160,127 then neither can June's. Therefore June's actual figure lies between A$144,103 & A$160,126 which is a pretty narrow band of just about A$16,000. That means that July's revenue figure also falls within that same band (give or take a couple of dollar's) A$144,104 - A$160,127.
Given that April can't be above A$144,103 neither can March's. Thus the revenue for March falls between A$93,697 & A$144,102. Similarly April's revenue has to be in the A$93,698 - A$144,103 range. Both of those are much wider bands at close to A$50,000.
That completes the bands for 4 of the 9 month's ( March, April, June & July)
Next deduction comes from the following, if July's minimum is A$144,104, then September's maximum revenue figure is arrived at via A$480,382 - A$144,104 - A$144,105 (total for the quarter minus July & August's lowest possible figures) = A$192,173. Thus September's revenue range is between A$160,129 & A$192,173 giving a maximun band of A$32,000.
You could apply the same method as this to calculate the maximum figures possible for March & June which work out at A$268,787 (Mar) & A$245,409 (Jun) respectively, but they were then superseded by other data we've already applied which lowered both figures considerably.
Since we have April & June's revenue number's its easy to workout May's revenue range. It has to be more than A$93,699 but less than A$160,125 ( the formula way is A$432,309 minus A$93,699 then divide the difference by 2 to account for the 2 remaining month's. however the figure in this case works out at A$169,305 which is higher than the June figure is known to be, so you ignore it & go with the info we already had).
However in the case of August the formula is actually beneficial (A$480,382 - A$144,104 [July] leaving A$336,277 which then divides by 2 to give A$168,138 as its maximum value & an overall band of A$144,106 to A$168,138, a band of A$24,000.
That now gives us the revenue bands for 7 of the 9 month's, only Jan & Feb are left incomplete and they are impossible to complete unless we had the revenue figure for the 2nd quarter. The only figure we have is the A$18,000 of cash received during that quarter, which as I said earlier is not the same as revenue generated in the quarter.
So we can now build a table to put all this data in.
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
| 1 |
Min Rev |
Max Rev |
Max Band |
Month |
| 2 |
n/a |
A$93,693 |
n/a |
Jan 2017 |
| 3 |
n/a |
A$140,500 |
n/a |
Feb 2017 |
| 4 |
A$93,697 |
A$144,102 |
A$50,500 |
Mar 2017 |
| 5 |
A$93,698 |
A$144,103 |
A$50,500 |
Apr 2017 |
| 6 |
A$93,699 |
A$160,125 |
A$64,000 |
May 2017 |
| 7 |
A$144,103 |
A$160,126 |
A$16,000 |
Jun 2017 |
| 8 |
A$144,104 |
A$160,127 |
A$16,000 |
Jul 2017 |
| 9 |
A$144,105 |
A$168,138 |
A$24,000 |
Aug 2017 |
| 10 |
A$160,129 |
A$192,173 |
A$32,000 |
Sept 2017 |
I've put the month's at the end, as we can add like deployment numbers or such like later, or plot our best guess for the month numbers & percentage month on month growth etc.
For the record I had half of this written before the announcement came out.
Pity I hadn't finished it as it might have encouraged Gary to give out the October revenue number to go with the deployment growth !!!
If anyone wants to plot a visual graph to show the monthly revenue band feel free.
More later.
LOTM
