BPT 0.33% $1.50 beach energy limited

In short, the US shale prices were based on a gas price circa...

  1. 830 Posts.
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    In short, the US shale prices were based on a gas price circa $12 a few years ago. The success of many, many drillers has seen that price fall to sub-$3, though it is edging back up.
    Could it happen here? Perhaps, but in the USA there is no LNG export, so gas is stranded and can't easily be stored, hence the fire sale prices.
    There is also an artifact in the way accounting rules work in the US SEC reporting. Basically, they can count the cashflow from a producing well as income and push the CAPEX into the never-never, giving and incentive to drill even it the whole life cycle cost is a loss, as long as sales > OPEX. So this spurs yet more over production. More on this at http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9397
    (I should say I know little about US accounting rules).
    In Oz we have a much lower gas price to start, about $5, and all the local macro moves point to a substantial increase (growing domestic market, carbon tax push away from coal for power generation, LNG export).
    There is limited upside in conventional deposits, and the golden CSG egg that the LNG plants are counting on looks to be at least a little scrambled.
    If I were to guess, I would say in five years everyone in AU will be complaining about higher domestic gas prices, BHP's shale write down this week will be looking excessive due to higher gas prices in the USA and BPT holders will be chuckling about the long term GSA deal Reg cut back in 2014 right when the LNG plants were soaking up all the excess gas and spot prices were at their peak.
 
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