Moonsoon Briefing Thurs 20 April, page-69

Yes, I agree with you on this. Puzzles me also. Acadia appears likely to triple and even quintuple their revenue in the next few years due to Retts, from current $0.5b to $1.5b ($1b Retts) and if they reach 5500 patients they will reach a total of $0.5b + $2b = $2.5b revenue. If their costs are double their payments to Neuren, then their EBIT will increase from their current $0.2b loss to between $0.5b to $1.2b profit.

This is an absolutely massive turnaround and if you used a conservative PE of 10 would value Acadia at between $5b to $12b, or between 1.5x to 4x their current share price.

Yet Trof appears to have added no value to Acadia's share price to date. Why?

I don't know if my estimate of their costs is wrong, but the above numbers are based on Acadia spending an additional $180m to $300m per annum in costs. That extra 50 staff would cost them about $5m-$10m per annum, so not sure what the rest of this would be spent on!

Acadia seems very undervalued to a similar degree as Neuren.

Please tell me what the flaws are in my analysis (otherwise I may need to start buying Acadia shares)