A quick recap. In armstrongs latest work he speaks of several numbers. 8.6 from his confidence model, 37.33 and 3.11 from the financial crisis wave and 224 and 72 from the political change wave. he demonstrates that all these numbers are fractals of each other except for 72 which he claims is unrelated. I put up a post the other day and I went to some length to prove that 72 was in error and that 71 and 3/7 was the real number and was in fact related. Just quickly my argument is that 71 and 3/7 week was 500 days. An armstrong cycle is 3141 days or pi x 1000days. using the formula circumference = pi x 2 x radius I reasoned that 500 days is the radius of an armstrong cycle. i offered some real market proof of this.
The 224/72 political change cycle is where a political system will rise to a peak over approx 224 year, then go into decline for 72 years and then suddenly and totally collapse. there are 26 armstrong cycles in the 224 cycle
I woke suddenly at 2am 2 nights ago and realized that I had not checked how many 500 day radii were in the 71 and 3/7 year decline period as it is the radius that links this number to the others. I had to get up to check and it turns out it is very close to 52...or if you prefer 26 diameters (2 x r). It must be remembered that armstrongs 3.141 x 1000 is a very close approximation of pi x 1000. Pi is 3.142857 etc etc. this introduces small errors....a radius is actually about 499.7 days. When I apply this number to 5x calcs I did in the post i put up the other day the small errors between calculated and actual lows are further reduced.
I decided that I am on the right track. the absolute numbers here are not what is important. Establishing the mathematical relationship between the political rise and the decline is what is important. This is what armstrong has failed to recogmize. If 'x' is the amount of time that a system is on the rise then I have come to believe that x/pi is the amount of time it takes to decline before the sudden and complete collapse.
As Armstongs tells us we can see fractals of these numbers throughtout the charts of the markets. So I decided to put my formula to the test. The last mega bull commenced when the market bottomed of the 9/8/1982. We saw a peak 10/10/2007 before we descended into this generational blood bath. So using my formula I reasoned that I should be able to calculate what Armstrong would call the political peak. I calculated that there were 9193 days between 14/8/1982 and 10/10/2007.
Using a bit of grade 9 algebra.
Let the period of political rise = x
X + X/pi = 9193
(pi x X) + x = 9193
(pi+1)X = 9193
X = 9193/(pi+1)
X= 6974 days
14/8/1982 + 6974 days.........now here's the kicker
is 12/9/2001....... 1 DAY AFTER 911
don't forget this model is used by armstrong to calculate political change ....not economic. the 2 go hand in hand. If a country's economy collapses then so does it's political influence but that is not to say that here may not be some time lag between the 2. The market itself had peaked om 18/1/2000.
911 meant great change for the US. the destruction of the world trade centre saw a loss of many of the country's leading business minds not to mention the data that would have been loss. The US then was forced into a war on 2 unwinnable fronts. Markets collapsed and central bank policy pumped it back up artifically with by creating real estate and credit bubbles. Also at this time security and surveillence was increased at the expense of the privacy of the individual.
There is no doubt that this began a period of decline for social america that was followed on the 10/10/2007 by a total systematic collapse that Armstrongs model predicts.
I also ran the number for the previous bull. That bull commenced 14/6/1949 and the peak before the collapse was on 11/1/1973. the political peak calculates to 4/5/1967. As I have said in previous posts I am too young to recollect specific events at that time. However as any woulda bin Rock Star knows that was late spring just before the summer of love. The US had enjoyed early support for the vietnam war. it was 67 when public opinion turned dramatically. The summer of love was a time of mass political and social rebellion.......and perhaps we could like the free love to the sexual decadence prominent in Rome during it's last days. This period was followed by watergate and Nixons impeachment. Pretty hard to argue that the US was not politically weakened during this period.
(20min delay)