Nice Hottin, on raw numbers i agree (somewhat) with you. However you need to take into account a few things to bring this down to a more realistic valuation:
- Dilution from capital raise (@ 40% equity and need to raise $119m ($298m * 40%) = additional 170m shares.
- risk of equity funding and repayment of interest on debt funding
- General operating expenses such as wages. Gross Margin is $294 according to recent presentation, operating margin will be lower. Also i note Colluli use $540 SOP price and Somers use $500.
- CAPEX expenditure up front, which is really part of point 1 above
- Net present value of future revenue and earnings
- Full production doesn't swing in until 2024
So maybe an 'alternative facts' lol valuation could be:
850,000 * gross margin of $220 = $187,000,000 * Earnings rate of 8 = $149.6Bil * 50% (DNK share) = $748m / 395 shares = $1.89
Factor in no full production until 2024, no free cash flow for a while us used to fund phase 2, and net present value of future earnings and that pushes it down further.
Another potential way to look at it is free cash flow of $215m per year, when this is up and running properly (8 years away) * multiple of cash earnings of 14 * 50% = $1,505,000 value * NPV of 10% @ 8 years = current value of $702,090.
@ 40% equity raise @ 70c for $298m = dilution of 43%
= NPV of entity of 400.1m v current entity value of $182m. so more than double undervalued.
Not to be the debbie downer, just like to bring some realism that needs to be discussed to go with the abundance of hype![]()
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?