"Overall, this is a mixed release. Despite the small increase in the headline unemployment rate, there was a strong rise in jobs, although this was partly offset by a reduction in aggregate hours worked. Obviously, the Australian labour market remains soft, with jobs growth still below the level required to absorb population growth.
We should also be cautious when a large rise in employment coincides with a significant jump in the participation rate, as has occurred this month. A similar result was reported this time last year, which ended up being driven by a rotation of the ABS sample. That is, new households entering the survey for the first time could have been more attached to the labour force than existing participants in the survey and so boosted both the level of employment and participation."
The incoming rotation group for February 2014 had a higher proportion of employed persons and persons in the labour force (i.e. less persons not in the labour force) than the sample it replaced. This incoming rotation group contributed, in original terms, 37% of the increase in total employment and 29% of the decrease in persons not in the labour force in February 2014. The trend estimates provide a better measure of the underlying level and direction of the series especially when there are significant rotation group effects.
The estimates in this publication are based on a sample survey. Published estimates and the movements derived from them are subject to sampling variability. Standard errors give a measure of sampling variability (see Standard Errors section). The interval bounded by two standard errors is the 95% confidence interval, which provides a way of looking at the variability inherent in estimates. There is a 95% chance that the true value of the estimate lies within that interval.
At the 95% Confidence interval the change in total employment was anything from -9,900 to +104,500.
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