More bovine excrement from their ABC, page-175

Every day since late March 2023, global ocean surface temperatures have set new records for the hottest temperature ever recorded on that date. On 47 of those days, temperatures have also surpassed previous highs by the largest margin seen in the satellite era, according to data from the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service.

This rapid heating raises a puzzle for scientists: why is recent ocean warming even greater than models suggest? "The step-change in ocean temperatures over last year is huge," says Hayley Fowler, professor of climate change impacts at Newcastle University in the UK. "The fact we can't simulate these step-change increases and understand why it's happening is terrifying."

Two factors are primarily responsible for the past year's record ocean heat, says Michael McPhaden, an oceanographer at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) in the US. The first is the atmosphere's ever-rising greenhouse gas concentrations.
The second was 2023's major El Niño event, in which warmer-than-average surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean led to increased evaporation – and a vast transfer of heat to the atmosphere.

One of the most notable effects is on precipitation and storm formation. If you have warmer sea surface temperatures, more moisture evaporates, explains Fowler. Global warming is heating the atmosphere at the same time, and warmer air is able to hold on to more moisture. So when it does rain, there is more of it. Plus, the effect is compounding: for every degree of warming, there's the potential for another 7% increase in rainfall and moisture, Fowler says.The speed at which storm systems intensified in 2023 also took weather forecasters by surprise. "Bomb cyclones", for example, saw mid-latitude cyclones strengthen rapidly. Towards the Tropics, Hurricane Otis hit Acapulco on Mexico's Pacific coast in October 2023 after intensifying from a weak storm to a category five hurricane overnight, as did Hurricane Lee, which battered the Caribbean the month before."We think these are the result of warm ocean temperatures rapidly intensifying small storms into really big systems," says Fowler. "

Particularly concerning in 2024 will be the potential for more active hurricanes. The recent El Niño system may soon switch to a La Niña phase. La Niña favours the formation of intense and frequent storms in the northern Atlantic off the coast of Africa by reducing wind shear. And with record warm sea surface temperatures transferring more energy to those storms as they then pass overhead, the resulting hurricane season is set to be one of the most active on record.


So much for no change