So which part of the following do you disagree with tradestur? If their product is crap and doesnt sell then you may buy at 1c, but if it does sell theres only way it will travel. 2007 would give a nice ROI dont you think?
NPAT of $550,000 per tonne assumed from: $1m per tonne, operating expenses 20% includes raw materials, tax 20% (lots of plant/ equipment deprecation) plus around 25m/ year budget for R&D and plant maintenance. The later will be less in the first few year, greater in the later years probably.
July 05
Estimate 3t made between now and Dec
20t plant = 1.7t/ month (from dec 04 onward)
14.9t between now and July 05 = 8.2mill NPAT
Begin construction of first 400t plant, est 1 year to complete. ========================== July 06
50t plant – 4.2t/ month (from July 05 onward)
50t July 05 – July 06 = 50t x 550,000 = 27.5 mill NPAT
July 06 - 400t plant complete
Europe ban on antibiotics from 2006 onwards/ big markets open up for new 400t plant
At this stage CMQ is servicing only 1650t of a possible 9000t industry (based on 04 estimates). So even if the industry doesn’t grow, CMQ still only have 18-19% of the market.
PE of 20 sounds fair considering the growth head and track record 120,00,000 shares on issue = $151.00/ share. We also haven’t touched on any human uses for their products either.
Note: 120mill share on issue, 30m share issued + loan to pay for MP2. Using my example above this would be the last cap raising and loan, unless CMQ decided to become more aggressive around 07. It may not be beyond CMQ to borrow the full amount for MP2, depends if and when they decide to be aggressive I guess.
CMQ Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held