So which part of the following do you disagree with tradestur?...

So which part of the following do you disagree with tradestur? If their product is crap and doesnt sell then you may buy at 1c, but if it does sell theres only way it will travel. 2007 would give a nice ROI dont you think?

NPAT of $550,000 per tonne assumed from: $1m per tonne, operating expenses 20% includes raw materials, tax 20% (lots of plant/ equipment deprecation) plus around 25m/ year budget for R&D and plant maintenance. The later will be less in the first few year, greater in the later years probably.


July 05

Estimate 3t made between now and Dec

20t plant = 1.7t/ month (from dec 04 onward)

14.9t between now and July 05 = 8.2mill NPAT

Begin construction of first 400t plant, est 1 year to complete.
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July 06

50t plant – 4.2t/ month (from July 05 onward)

50t July 05 – July 06 = 50t x 550,000 = 27.5 mill NPAT

July 06 - 400t plant complete

Europe ban on antibiotics from 2006 onwards/ big markets open up for new 400t plant

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July 07

450t – 37.5t/month (20.6mill/ month); 450t x 550,000 = 247.5 mill NPAT (July 07)

Begin construction of MP3 400t plant, est 1 year to complete. (paid for in full with this years profits. Possibly start MP4 (400t) also with a loan.

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July 08

450t – 37.5t/month (20.6mill/ month); 450t x 550,000 = 247.5 mill NPAT

MP3 complete

Begin construction of MP4 and MP5 both 400t plants, est 1 year to complete

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July09

850t – 70.8t/ month (39mill/ month); 850t x 550,000= 467.5 mill NPAT

MP4 and MP5 complete

Begin construction of MP6 and MP7 both 400t plants, est 1 year to complete

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July 10

1650t @ 137.5t/ month (75.6 mill/ month); 1650t x 550,000 = 907.5 mill NPAT

Begin construction of however many you want.

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At this stage CMQ is servicing only 1650t of a possible 9000t industry (based on 04 estimates). So even if the industry doesn’t grow, CMQ still only have 18-19% of the market.

PE of 20 sounds fair considering the growth head and track record 120,00,000 shares on issue = $151.00/ share. We also haven’t touched on any human uses for their products either.

Note: 120mill share on issue, 30m share issued + loan to pay for MP2. Using my example above this would be the last cap raising and loan, unless CMQ decided to become more aggressive around 07. It may not be beyond CMQ to borrow the full amount for MP2, depends if and when they decide to be aggressive I guess.