I agree that there is still significant risk for cmq cabe -...

I agree that there is still significant risk for cmq cabe - however I see it a little differently than you. For me the biggest risk is the APVMA unconditional licence approval, this must be granted before 31/05/05 or the penalty clauses of the mhi deal will apply.

If cmq can achieve this then significant risk has been eliminated and I think sp will be > 2.40 ensuring mhi don't get an even bigger slice than the 24% they effectively have now. There is some speculation that cmq have completed the commercial validation batches necessary for the APVMA licence - if this is the case then the unconditional licence may not be to far away. As for the ASIC action, this kind of thing is difficult to prove so I doubt it will amount to much.

As for ramp up I agree that the figures I quoted are only a plan for now. However once they have sorted the filtration problem (according to the independent engineering report this is just a matter of time) and received the APVMA licence then sp will influence ramp up.