The following is a summary of more detailed estimates for CY13...

The following is a summary of more detailed estimates for CY13 based upon the recently released Qrtly report. All figures in A$ millions unless otherwise noted. Actual (a) is noted; all other numbers are estimated.

Gold Recovered

Jan-Mar: 30,451 oz (a)
Apr-Jun: 14,700 oz/mth
Jul-Dec: 20,000 oz/mth
Total CY13: 194,551 oz

Production increase due to Duckhead depends upon timing of Government approvals. Assumptions are:

Gold ore milled: 11,000 tpd for 28 days/mth Apr-Jun; increasing to 12,000 tpd Jul-Dec (28 days allows for maintenance)
Head grade: 1.60 g/t Apr-Jun; 2.00 g/t Jul-Dec (assumes Duckhead fully included by July)
Recovery: 93%
Conversion: 1 t oz = grammes x 0.032151

My assumptions produce a total of about 200,000 oz for the year, which is the company guidance. I had previously thought this might be a bit optimistic, but when I did the sums that seems about right. A lot depends upon Duckhead being on time.

Revenues

Jan-Mar: A$35.5m (a)
Apr-Jun: A$61.4m + A$4.3m for a US$100 increase in gold price
Jul-Dec: A$176.5m + A$11.8m for a US$100 increase in gold price
Total CY13: A$273.4m + A$16.1m for a US$100 increase in gold price

Assumptions are:

Gold price: US$1,420 per oz
AUD:USD 1.02
US$80 per oz for iron ore offtake Jul-Dec (worth A$9.4m). Company guidance is US$100 per oz.

Costs

Jan-Mar: A$40.2m (a)
Apr-Jun: A$35.2m
Jul-Dec: A$77.4m
Total CY13: A$152.8m

Assumptions are:

Costs are inline with forecast from quarterly report for next quarter, then increase by 10% for second half of the year. Costs include interest payments.

Cost per oz

Jan-Mar: US$1,346 per oz (a)
Apr-Jun: US$814 per oz
Jul-Dec: US$658 per oz
Total CY13: US$801 per oz

Does not include iron ore offtake, taxes or royalties

Taxes, Depreciation & Amortisation

Jan-Mar: A$0m (a)
Apr-Jun: A$5.2m + A$0.9m for a US$100 increase in gold price
Jul-Dec: A$19.8m + A$2.4m for a US$100 increase in gold price
Total CY13: A$25.0m + A$3.3m for a US$100 increase in gold price

Assumptions are:

20% of the difference between revenue and costs. The 20% rate is a guess and includes all taxes, royalties, etc. as well as depreciation. I suspect this is an over-estimate but I like to be conservative.

Earnings

1H13: A$16.3m + A$3.4m for a US$100 increase in gold price
2H13: A$79.3m + A$9.4m for a US$100 increase in gold price
CY13: A$95.6m + A$12.8m for a US$100 increase in gold price

Note that this is in line with company announcement that they intend to pay off roughly $70m from their loans this CY. The cash flow would certainly allow for that to happen.

EPS

1H13: 2.2cps + 0.5cps for a US$100 increase in gold price
2H13: 10.7cps + 1.3cps for a US$100 increase in gold price
CY13: 12.9cps + 1.7cps for a US$100 increase in gold price

At current share price the forward PE ratio is about 5.

I think these numbers are about right and in some areas somewhat conservative.