hahaha - no worries. ACR is something of a hobby for me now... as i am convinced the shorts have this one wrong... its more an easy manipulation play supported by U B S enabled liquidity rather than anything more...
yes it is effectively a one product bio - but then again what other bio-firm out there isn't? and + this one actually gets positive cashflows from a product that is number two position in a multi billion dollar market (one of the few AU bios out there that does). This firm actually has the cash to fund something new / leverage its IP to create more revenue streams (and without tapping shareholders). With a focused management and refreshed pipeline anything is possible. My suggestion would be to take a generic drug and apply the application tech to it... give the background of the new CEO i wouldn't be surprised if they took this approach.
yes the Testosterone market is under the FDA review - i don't believe Eli Lilly has been as reckless as others in marketing Axiron and the controlled application angle makes Axiron less of a target here anyway. IF doctors are prescribing based on medical need (as they should) any additional labelling requirements will have limited impact anyway.
Yes market share growth has flattened at 14%... this is not the 35%+ share that many brokers originally estimated. Even if share does not increase and no further milestone payments are made (remember they have $50m + $120m milestone still out there - although not likely given how they are tracking at this point) - at current levels $1-1.5 is around fair value... international expansion / net sales from Axiron is also understated in my opinion - so growth from this product can not be ruled out - even if the US market shrinks over the next few years. It just means ACR management will need to focus on developing the pipeline / new ideas to create growth... on the other hand - if international expansion increases at current rates and Axiron net sales grow... upside is significant
Just my thoughts...
Regards,
Mita
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