Hiya Barnsty, I'll field some of your questions to 9lives, seeing as I'm online and available at the mo.
Firstly, T/a is a fickle beast, and 9lives is primarily a t/a person, therefore also a fickle beast, lol.
If t/a is indicating something to a t/aer, then "fundamental" stuff like "Also, do you not expect a nice rally to commence around the 14th Jan, considering all the positive sentiment that will be in the air with Obama coming into office a week later, massive stimulus package plus all the other positive hype connected to a new presidency and everything that will be promised etc? He speaks well and will be great for sentiment imo. Also the fact that US banks will be enetering into a new year (on their books) and will be lending like crazy again which will surely take the equity markets up on confidence alone?"
Ultimately is irrelevant...
The market doesn't act on stuff the way the majority expect it too, if it did, there would be a lot less wailing and gnashing of teeth from those who have no system.
Consider for a start, there is a lot of expectation for a rally caused by people loving Obama, the stimulus packages etcetera.
Ummm... isn't at this stage the fact that Obama is coming into office a given? surely if this is going to cause a rally then the herd would already be rallying?
As an opposite thing, there has been some shocking economic data coming from the US in the last week. And the market "rallied" (well it didn't fall down).
Many would expect falling down action on this data... expecting just doesn't work.
9Lives is in no way contradicting himself, nor is he saying that the market now wont turn at the 29th... take note of that word "turn"... Voltaire, robb, SanFelipe 9lives and Whyme2 have all been publicly discussing turns at around this time. Did they say it would rally right up to this point, and then miraculously fall down? No... Seldom does one see such action at a turn in a market, where the top is never tested before failing or a bottom is bounced from without retesting.
On top of this, 9Lives, amongst all the cycle gurus, never says his dates will be exact... in fact more often than not, he along with others, will provide the caveat that a turn date might be out due to factors such as trade days, weekends and the like.
As a final thing, 9lives is a front runner... what he talks about in the context of market action is generally what he beleives will or could be. So, if last week he talked about a turn at the 29th, that has now been discussed, and he has moved forward to what he expects after the turn.
So to wrap it up, I am not saying your views are not legitimate, however a greater understanding of how 9lives and many of the "forecasters" here operate will serve you well and probably cause you less confusion.
Imagine them as weather forecasters... if their predictions were not correct, then it is irrelevant, though food for thought at the time. unless specifically commenting on past action, like any good trader, our forecasters are scouting for opportunity ahead, using the most up to date information they have at hand, constantly refining their views from long term to shorter term, reading the market, refining/adding to the lists of potential winning trades, including where that winning trade might best be closed for profit.
eMark not too sure what your point is, however, something you might want to consider... 9lives is not imparting what he beleives will happen to cause you personal problems. You are totally in control of how you choose to act on his information. If X was to tell you you are about to be hit by a bus, while you are standing out in the middle of a road admiring your feet, is it then X's fault if indeed you do get hit by a bus, and by imparting the warning/information, is X causing you pain? I mean why not get off the road, wait for the bus and jump on it, possibly even thank X for the heads up?
Mmmm I think I've had too much sugar... anyone else wanna play? lol
(20min delay)