Bureau of Meteorology puts Australia on alert for a ‘rare’ form of La Nina
MANY of us may be basking in a heatwave but cherish it while you can because a “rare” climate driver could be about to wreck everything.
NOVEMBER 22, 2017, 5:40PM
— we could be in for a wet and cool summer.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has upped its prediction of a “rare” form of the La Nina climate driver and has said the event is now almost certain to develop, with the effects of the weather event possible as soon as next month...
In a climate note, the weather agency officially moved Australia to La Nina “alert” as it confirmed sea temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean continued to cool, a key indicator it could be on its way...
“Oceanic indicators of ENSO show a clear progression towards La Nina. Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have cooled since late winter, and waters beneath the surface remain cooler than average in the eastern Pacific. However, they are currently just shy of La Nina thresholds,” the Bureau said on Tuesday.
“As a result, the ENSO Outlook has been raised to La Nina ‘alert’ meaning there is approximately a 70 per cent chance — or triple the normal likelihood — of La Nina occurring.”
To back up its climate call, the Bureau released a graph that showed all eight of its meteorological models pointed to equatorial sea surface temperatures dropping to -0.8C below the average 1961 to 1991 levels — the Australian threshold for a La Nina.
