More interest in our Seychelles region, page-12

Having spoken to DR last week got me thinking about these 2 acreage applications again, and I'm more convinced than ever that Ophir is the as yet unnamed applicant. This is my speculation alone. Make of it what you will.

-We all know that Ophir considers the region has potential, else they wouldn't be in bed with us.
-By applying now, they effectively would lock anyone else out of the acreages before results of our drill are known.
-Ophir has already committed to a work programme on our block which includes a drill costing probably some $30m. This is quite a cheap drill (the water depth in our 3D zone was typically 40m) and will yield, presumably, some very relevant geological information pertaining to the 2 new adjacent block applications. This is what clinches it for me. They will get critical information from a cheapish drill they have already agreed to (in work programme terms, not yet an absolute drill commitment) that will give relevant detail that they can apply to any expensive deep water drills. The other two blocks typically have water depths of 2000m or so, and as such drills could be VERY expensive ($100m + quite possibly). The shallow water drill data would give them more deep water drill confidence than any other party could have (except us, but I don't think we're deep water drill ready yet)
-Even if the 3D on our block isn't great, there would still be an incentive to drill the cheap hole to understand the geology better before drilling expensive holes in the other acreages.

Since the last post on this thread, Piast found the very interesting announcement from Dolphin Geophysical that they have been contracted to shoot 3D, starting in Q4 this year, by an independent oil company somewhere in the Indian Ocean. Why the secrecy as to who and where, unless the acreage itself was still secret? I'm more and more convinced that the independent in question is Ophir and that the 3D target is again in the Seychelles. It may even be stage 2 of the 3D they "might" shoot on our shared block.

I wondered at first, if the above is true, then, negatively for us, wouldn't Ophir want to delay drilling our shared block till they have a drill rig in place to do the deep stuff too. I then realised that, of course, to drill 40m depth (or thereabouts) you'd use a jack up rig, and to drill 2000m you'd use a submersible - very different bits of kit. Also, to get the benefit of the geological knowledge gained from the cheaper shallow drill, you'd have to do it well before analysing 3d on the deeper zones i.e. there's no point in drilling the two depths together even if you could.

Petroseychelles is open to counter offers for the 2 applications till Nov 17. I don't know how quickly announcements will move after this, but if things go really quickly, maybe we'll know the truth behind all my speculation before our CR closes (should our CR be extended).

GLTA and DYOR.