The only thing I can think analysts can use to justify their...

The only thing I can think analysts can use to justify their target price is that pellet premiums will reduce. Thinking about the pressure fines are under due to environmental concerns in China, BHP and RIO will be thinking about going into pellets to slaughter another market. However that will take a long, long time so I think Grange is safe for some time. From what I read, I think Vale is the only large producer of pellets. BHP and RIO do not have meaningful scale.

There might be other producers of pellets, happy to be corrected if I am wrong.

With so much cash in the bank, there is such a large buffer to play with. GRR feels much, much safer than the other stocks on the ASX, even the ASX/5o (assuming no pitwall failure). And to their credit, management (i.e. the Chinese) have operated this company very well, almost frugally. I don't know how the analysts can justify their price targets. I think it is just some x percentage of the current share price. None of their reasoning stands up to scrutiny. They do full justice to the first four letters of their title i.e. anal-ysts.