My gut feel on the Japan distributorship with COSMOTEC/M3 is not...

My gut feel on the Japan distributorship with COSMOTEC/M3 is not great at this stage. My thinking is laid out below:

1. Going into a sole distributorship relationship in Japan is a big deal and reasonably binding - it is possible to break these relationships if needed, but that would be partly dependent on the specific contract language used and the court jurisdiction in the contract. Hopefully it is Avita who wrote the agreement and the jurisdiction is in Australia. Therefore, picking the correct partner is important.
2. Avita gave the rights to a couple of guys because they were approached - admittedly they did establish a company and started processing and paying for the required JPMDA approvals - which is a good thing. Still, if you read this article here you can see they did not exactly execute as they committed to: https://www.link-j.org/en/interview/post-1790.html - specifically "If you grant us the exclusive development and commercial rights in Japan, we will raise the necessary capital to build the business in Japan from venture capitalists. You will be able to enter the Japanese market at no risk and not pay a cent. You'll never find a better offer. We have our own financial constraints, so we cannot pay an upfront fee, but you can leave the rest to us." INDEE then went on to sell the distribution rights/company on to Cosmotec/M3 who had this kind of commentary inserted into the press release you linked to "With over 30 years since our foundation, COSMOTEC has been doing business in 90-100% of high acute care hospitals in Japan in the fields of cardiac surgery, vascular surgery, and wound care. As a member of the M3 Group, we can deliver the RECELL System's benefits to at least 90% of Japanese plastic surgeons and dermatologists through the portal site "m3.com." With this opportunity, we would like to contribute to the advancement of burn injury and wound care in Japan." Japan is still very much focused on long sales cycles based off established relationships. A web portal will not be the answer for establishing the product and required training in Japan. Hopefully the president of COSMOTEC has a proper product roll out strategy, marketing and training plan with the appropriate investment attached to the business case. Foot leather on pavements is required to embed Recell as an established standard of care in Japan - more than would be the norm in the U.S. market.

So here is my key issue with this. Recell was sold on for profit by INDEE - which means the objectives were not aligned. INDEE would have been after a good sell price whereas Avita would have wanted the right partner - nothing has come out in the press releases and public information to have me believe both objectives have been met.

Again, as noted at the start, this is just my gut feel concern. I have not researched it any more than using my background with Japan as a basis for gauging my thoughts on the situation. Hopefully I am proved wrong early with the situation. I would just suggest to not show too much bravado too early on having strong sales in Japan before we have them. When the sales do come in Japan they will continue for many many years and be consistent. In my opinion it will just take time and investment by the right partner(s).

To end this post on a positive note, the excellent results in the Australia and U.S. markets will mean a lot to the Japan doctors and health institutions. There is a possibility that the risks and concerns I would have from my past experience were all well managed by Avita, but in this case I think it is unlikely.