After writing the above post I gathered some more data:
- COSMOTEC had approx. 100 employees in Sep 2017 when M3 acquired them. Boasting of 1,000 annual transactions - the company was bought for just over USD9 million.
- The company was established in 1992, it is fair to say that it has not been a high growth company in the past.
I think the above additional information further supports my thesis. I was going to research the company in Japanese and potentially ask a friend in finance in Tokyo to look at the parent company via Bloomberg for supply chain analysis etc. but at this point it seems a little moot.
Avita may need to support COSMOTEC by helping to convince the parent company M3 to put some significant investment into the product market entry plan to ensure the product launch is successful. Additionally, Avita should ensure that the milestones and consequences of meeting or not meeting sales goals is well understood and acknowledged in writing by the other party early in the relationship.
My understanding is that executing in Japan without a contract can show intent which can lead to rights being given away. I am not saying there is not a contract, just stating that actions in themselves have legal consequences.
Again, hopefully my last two posts are completely off the mark - and the reputation of Recell quickly results in good sales in Japan in spite of the potential for under investment by a partner that may be weak.
References:
https://www.reuters.com/article/brief-m3-to-acquire-cosmotec-for-101-bln-idUSL4N1M02IH
https://corporate.m3.com/en/ir/20170919_03/0917_%E3%82%B3%E3%82%B9%E3%83%A2%E3%83%86%E3%83%83%E3%82%AF_E_v1.0.pdf
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