RCH richfield group limited

more on the big hitter

  1. 1,057 Posts.

    Chaps,

    I'm not sure if todays action was the big hitter or not starting but it was a good day anyway.

    By the way, this is NOT the Canadians. The buyer is closer to home. As well, what this big hitter is chasing in terms of a position in RCH is far bigger than the Canadians would be stumping up. They are smaller in terms of what they throw in early than what this player is looking for.

    In my opinion, this party I'm referring to in general terms so as to not get censored again, will need to take a placement to supplement their on market purchase because they will never get the position they want on market.

    Assuming they get to where they intend going, they will be the new second biggest shareholder (behind vendors of the Toli Toli project).

    Its good to see big hitters come to the same conclusion I reached a few months ago, that this is a very big world class high grade resource. (remember its average grade is double Moly Metals average grade and it has a high grade core 3 times the average grade of MM).

    Now I've shown my valuation calculations before and subject to the key being turned on, I get around $1.40 per share. I'm reluctant to use that figure in case it attracts ridicule but anybody who uses an appropiate feasibility model (I have 2) which are easily extracted from various Canadian Moly company web sites (canadians like publishing their feasibility studies) will get the same sort of numbers. If anything I went over borad on Capex and operating expenses.

    I know for a fact that the "M" brothers have a different valuation. They have $3.00 per share as the long term valuation (operational mine).

    I disagree but its a free world. I wont be bagging them.

    Now, what I can say is 4 cents is a tad on the low size (lol). At 4 cents, the market cap fully diluted is 0.5% (yes one half of one percent) of the value of the metal in the ground.

    Now you might poo poo me, but the big kahoona about to take a very sizeable position in this company, must agree I think.

    Now, once the big Kahoona is set, I believe they will invite the Canadians in and I can tell you now, they wont be getting in at 4 cents. I've always said 6 cents and I reckon that's about right but nothing is set in stone.

    So what we have here are resource players wanting to get set but which isn't easy given the size of the free float of stock. Sure you can pick up 20M or 40M but it wont take long before you have spent $1M and can't get much more. RCH will have to do placement deals in combination with demanding these parties buy a certain amount on market.

    Next week could be interesting. I'm not yet convinced that the big hitter has even started buying. We may just have a bunch of front runners piling in ahead of whats coming.

    When I see 5 days in a row of real good volume, I will be satisfied that its happening.

    By the way, if you want a decent poistion in a company like this with a whopping top notch project, you are not going to be too fussed whether you get in at 4, 5, 6 or 7. The truth is you will get an average of all of these prices. When you move into a junior in a big way, you are in it for the long hall because there is no way of getting out again. Thus the project has to be bullet proof and big enough to create a big company so you can exit down the track.

    Oh, nearly forgot. Someone asked about the pricing of the options and there being no time premium and was he missing something. No buddy, you haven't missed anything, this is the most bizarre option market I've ever come accross. Not only is there no time premium with a full year to go but on a bad day the things trade at a discount. That's why I buy the options, they are an absolute gift relative to the fully paids. Should I suddenly lose my mind and decide I want out of this cracker of a resource story I sure as hell wont be selling back into the option market, I will convert accross to the fully paids.

    All the best

 
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