MW03,I agree with you on all the positives you postedRelenza...

MW03,
I agree with you on all the positives you posted
Relenza will certainly overtake Tamiflu as the antiviral of choice IF governments and patients can get their supply.

Every step of the way GSK had to be dragged out of bed to increase Relenza production not by Peter Cook but by Government Health Authorities demanding to buy Relenza. A restricted Relenza supply benefits the sale of GSK Pandamic Flu Vaccines. This is reflected in the disproportionate sale of Relenza to GSK Vaccines and Roche's performance. In the results released a few days ago, GSK sold $304.4m Relenza and approx $1.4 billions worth of yet to be produced GSK Flu Vaccines (190 million doses)

The idiot Peter Cook had been praising GSK’s pathetic efforts whenever the demand for Relenza goes up. Roche’s efforts PUT GSK and Peter Cook to shame.

Despite all the problems afflicting Tamiflu (H1N1 resistance & the psychotic effects on young patients), Roche sold CHF1billion (approx 1.14 billion Australian dollars) compared to $304.4 million of Relenza.

There were so much demand for Relenza in the Japan Winter that on 11 February 2009 GSK was forced to allocate the demand over 3 months – 0.4m Feb; 0.6m Mar & 1m Apr.
As a comparison despite Tamiflu being totally useless against the Northern Hemisphere Seasonal H1N1 Flu; Quoting from Roche: “Global sales of Tamiflu for influenza rose 38% overall to 401 m Swiss francs in the first quarter. Growth was driven by sales to governments and corporations for pandemic stockpiling including significant new orders in Japan and the UK”

It was obvious to us in HC that GSK had to stretched supply to arrive after Winter!
And this was before the swine-flu outbreak.
Even Blind Freddy could see demand for Relenza had exceeded GSK production capacity in Feb 09 but not the idiot Peter Cook.

After the swine flu outbreak, there were many posts in HC predicting huge demand for Relenza. On 29 May, GSK was again dragged out of bed to increase production from 30m courses p.a to 60 m. Again many of us in HC posted that this is seriously inadequate. Yet again the idiot Peter Cook was praising GSK’s pathetic efforts.

On 23 July, GSK announced tripling production capacity to 190 million.
This is again seriously inadequate. Many of the world heath authorities are demanding 50% of the antiviral stockpiles to be Relenza. Compare to GSK; Roche is increasing Tamiflu production to 400 million.

Yes, we are all excited with the rising share price and we are all excited about brokers upgrading their recommendations on BTA. We are also convinced the sp will easily exceed Taylor Collisons’ valuation of $2.60

IF the idiot Peter Cook had not talk down the sp, the sp would have closed a lot higher than $1.88 on Friday. For details of talking down sp read:
http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=945828&msgid=5270458