It&e. (ITE).
Hi Danlupi,
Couple of quick points....in anwer to your very nice post.
(1). Yes definitely...!!
Will take you up on the Whitsunday Offer...Yes please...
That sounds fantastic....But please.... keep an eye out for any shark’s, or any other dangerous sea creatures !! And of course, pack the Fridge with Crownies !!
(2)-- There seems to be a forming--- (ITE) investor Consensus ....(going around some of the emails also which I receive) .... that the $30-$32 Millions on the (ITE) Top Line is:
(a) relevant,
(b) rational and not far fetched,
(c) realistic, and not just a best case scenario) and ....a...,
(d) reasonable number to model a forward EBITA/NPAT assumption from, as a baseline Top Line number.
(3)-- Of course Danlupi; even if you take the bottom part of that Top Line Revenue range—($30-to $32m)—and then you discount that AGAIN-- by 10%-- to $27 M, and assume the Break-Even on costs is about..... $18 M, then you still have .... a very healthy --$9m on the (ITE) bottom line.
(3i) -- Now here is the interesting point.....imo Danlupi.....
Drop that figure again-- (or discount that if you prefer that lingo)- .... down.... by a further 1/3rd... !!—and "only"-- put $6m, on the (ITE) Bottom line—and ask the simple question —??--
What and how will the market ...assess that figure of $6m-- and respond....??...
OF course ....I.... 'prefer' .... your projected “numbers” Danlupi—!!--- and; your NPAT is probably—about –imo-- ...."on the money"....(...hence why I reckon there is still such a wide Margin of Safety now for (ITE)-- )--on this model anyway-- --But frankly, I would even be.... "happy" ....with anything above $5.5- $6 M--cold hard in the Black Profit on that (ITE) --Bottom Line...
Why so...?
Well that sort of ....in the Black $6m- number— as well as the Pending Conversion of the much discussed; (ITE) current shortlisted POC’s to Black & White formal Invoicable and book-able as Earnings now-- Software and ongoing Contracts-- Above all else;imo--- is what the market now will love to feel more relaxed about....
And of course Danlupi, ... Then it is all even greater realsitic further upside immediately going forward again-- ....in respect to (ITE)'s-- forward revenue growth of New Sales pipelines, on going Licence Fees, etc etc-- and further ..."any un-recognized contractual earnings"-- flowing through to the balance sheet-- in the next period.
Even , a approx $6 mill NPAT-- would be recognized "by the market"-- on my assessments with a 45 + PE--due to the nature of the Global Base of (ITE)’s-- Revenue going forward etc...so we have on these numbers-- about $240 cap== equaling ....about $1.23 +. ..and I have diluted that cap-- ....quite a bit too.
The rationale for this high PE—is that It would be so easy for (ITE) to "sell" the credibility of the story then .—and the markets would see the story a bit like EMI—or BVA....
Remember Danlupi, --emitch-- EMI—(a share as you know I am intimate with)-- had.... ONLY-- a $3.68 million annualized EBITA-- not NPAT--but EBITA—for 2006-- and was rated at 230 -250 millions cap .(and...importantly-- " held"-- that rating)...on the same sort of basis.
>>>--@@ ****** In relation to your Managed Funds Questions....—the Biggest Issue is not just the recent Performance of the Fund—they could have got lucky—but is in ascertaining the share selection philosophy and discipline in allocation of capital, patience and sheer consistent-- skill ....in –CONSISTENT-- wealth compounding ....Stock Selection.
So then, on recent form—and one’s I do not mind include-- :-- ,
--Orion Equities (OEQ) ,
--Hunter Hall Global (HHV),
-- Marnier (MFI), and
-- Australian Wealth Management –(AUW).
@@-->>>-- ***-- ***--
....>>@@- ** A quick free Plug !!
Interestingly enough Danlupi-- —I ....personally ....have been recntly approached by a few ASIC Approved Fund managers recently ....to oversee and run ....a specific Investment Vehicle—(Trust Fund etc—and available for the general Public) .....
This “Robbo”-- (and other select Pub Stock Pickers)-- —but predominantly ....yours truly me—ie: I would have the first and final say-- "Robbo Managed Investment Share Fund"-- ..... would quite simply.... be my own boring plain vanilla-..." Robbo Stock Picks—Fund"-- .....but would ......errrrrr.... on the more Conservative Side—of Predictable future Earnings-- with no—nil-n- Mining ....or Energy/Oil N Gas stocks.
The potential possible advantage to Investors—....would be.... that they would be able to potentially possibly benefit .....from getting into the Robbo stocks I research super early—and thus at the lower range of the share price.(via the Robbo Investment Fund).
So btw Danlupi-- If this is of interest, then pleae.... let me know.
Will know..... btw...within the next 2 weeks; if this will definitely fly—about 75% likely -- at this stage....from what I can gather.
Danlupi, I do hope the above responses to the items in this post.... are.... of some small help.... and interest....
Kindest Regards,
Robbo ..
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Kindest Regards,
Robbo.
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