Asmentioned in my previous posts, the estimated NPV of the Sorby Hills Project toPMY was based on the April 2020 PFS Update using the same metrics for Pb (US$ 0.92lb), Ag ( US$15.40 oz) and Forex (0.70) and using all the same costings as inthe PFS except where minimally noted.
At the outset I note that there remains a massive gap between the current market cap of PMY of $14.4 million and the value of the Sorby Hills project of circa $179 million (with a 40% risk adjustment of PMY's 75% share) using the Whole of Ore method costings.
It hastaken me a while to do anything on the cost side because the entire method ofprocessing has changed from the original PFS scoped project. Both the Whole ofOre Option and the DMS option use methods that I understand substantiallyreduce the risk profile of the project and increase the certainty of proceedingto production, however, the cost profiles of both are now entirely different.
With theinformation publicly available I have been able to make a reasonable attempt onthe Whole of Ore Option. The DMS option is more complex and I will have toawait the Optimised PFS to see what that involves.
With the Wholeof Ore Option I have adjusted the estimated costs and recast the value to PMYon the following basis –
-Theprocessing costs are entirely different. As the Whole of Ore Option has notbeen used or costed before by PMY, I have used as a comparative the processingcosts of Galena which does. Its July 2019 FS used a 15c per lb processing costand delivers 8.1% Pb concentrate, compared to the 4% delivered by the Whole ofOre method set out in the PFS Update of April 2020 for PMY. Roughly thisequates to 30.37c per lb for PMY. This is what I have used.
-TheSilver Credits are different, while there is an increase in the total $ availablethere is a decrease in the credits per lb of Pb concentrate. (The increase in Pb over the PFS of 78.8% is not matched by a similar increase in Ag of 46.9%. Hence, the reduction in credits per lb).
-Allthe other costs are the same as in the PFS as you will see from the detailed tableincluded after the summary.
The valueof the Sorby Hills Project has been recast using the changed costs and theimproved risk profile of 40% rather than 60% as follows -
For those interested, here is a summary of the calculations -
And for those who like graphs -
As always DYOR........
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