That is a large portion of the sale to be forced to hold!

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HCuser3

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17/08/20

08:19

Post #: 46581839
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Originally posted by goldbear77: ↑

what will be interesting is how the Fed/Reserve manage the inevitable natural surge in yields that will occur next year

China has undertaken a big stimulus to deal with Covid - that typically results in a big pickup in global gdp growth 12 months later - yields rise etc

at same time US can't afford to be paying higher yields on its debt issuance

I've also some read some interesting but conflicting data on just how much of US T bill issuance is being bought by offshore buyers vs US

it seems to suggest China in particular is buying significantly less US Gov debt. Japan will presumably always be a big buyer. Saudi Arabia is another question mark

the read through would seem to be that the US will need to apply yield curve control on its bonds - as natural buying from offshore participants seems to be falling.

but also - historically rising interest rates are actually positive for gold and silver - not negative - so long as real gdp growth doesnt significantly outstrip the rising rates. thats what killed the 94-95 gold/silver bull market. US real gdp growth kept rising and rising and did so until 2001/2

very difficult to know though whats causal and whats correlated without being causal

for eg. it could be that historically gold/silver rerate higher with higher interest rates because the rate rises reflect higher global growth - which means Emerging Market economies are improving - so USD falls relative to non US currencies - and its the end of USD bull market that triggers gold/silver rising

or it could be inflation linked - to which interest rates only are a partial pointer

im sure someone in the world has studied this and knows the answer - but its not me

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That is a large portion of the sale to be forced to hold!

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