Politics has gotten in the way of this for too long. Every time we lurch back toward fossil fuels or quickly away from them we damage industry, efficiency and the environment.
The smart thing to do early was to manage the situation on the basis that climate change would probably occur, but transitioning to a lower emissions society would have to be gradual and eventually benefit the economy. The assumption that climate change would probably occur is logical not only because of the scientific consensus, but because even if climate change wasn't real, the measures taken to prevent it enhance technology and efficiency. In terms of risk management, it's a no-brainer.
So about 20 years ago we should have acknowledged that the 1920s style technology of coal-fired baseload power was on its way out. Investors have. No one in their right mind would invest in one. Firstly, it's too wasteful and inefficient and expensive, especially when you take into account the remediation costs at the end of its lifespan. Secondly, baseload power can't compete against renewables, which would always eventually be cheaper for much of the 24-hour cycle. The only way coal can compete in the long term is more efficient new generation models that can come on to the market when the price is right.
Here is where politics stuffed things up though. At this point, 20 years ago, we should have used nuclear power for the transition as renewables and storage technology wasn't ready. Nuclear plants would have had a 30 year lifespan and tided us over to about 2030, by which time renewables and storage will be the obvious choice for cost and efficiency. But no, we raced into solar and wind too early, when the technology wasn't there and the grid couldn't integrate it. Then Abbott did a U-turn and went the other way, destroying the investments many mum and dad investors had made and making research to make it work unviable.
By balancing the need to support industry and jobs with the need to change, we could have created certainty for the market. And yes, looked after the environment too to ensure our kids' future. Instead, we ended up with the worst of both worlds. We've damaged industry, created uncertainty for investors, raised energy costs for consumers and are still damaging the environment. Bloody politics.
