I think Richard Heaton summed up the difference between CNE results versus FAR results perfectly when he said:-
"To put just three or four wells down in that and expect us all to arrive at exactly the same answer would probably be a little bit optimistic and unusual and clearly you give it to ten different geological companies or ten geologists you will come up with a range of numbers.
We both have wide sets of numbers. We’ve very pleased that we’re moving in the right direction, we’ve only incorporated as yet the numbers that we feel comfortable from the first of our appraisal wells. The second well has come in rather different and mostly better than we expected.
So there's quite a lot of room for manoeuvre and I can't comment exactly how they’ve got their numbers, I don't know but we’re quite confident where we are at the moment and the way that we’d like to move.”
I would not be the least concerned about any difference in numbers recently announced by Cairn versus FAR's RISC numbers. The most important thing to look at is where all of this is trending or as Richard Heaton said "we’re moving in the right direction".
You only need to look at the increasing footprint of SNE for starters and then look at the flow tests from SNE 2 and 3. No need to get hung up on numbers as each geologist will interpret areas in the seismic differently which will either add or subtract to figures. Every extra hole drilled provides more sample points and more information to help tighten up numbers as we move forward. All shareholders should be really pleased that what has been discovered to date is very rare and with every further successful hole de-risking further targets to be tested.
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