Further to my: "...at an NPV (FID) of US$10/barrel I will have to revise all my table values upwards, possibly to the extent that they significantly exceed the "forecast current market prices", which is the game I was playing in constructing the tables"
I note from Ya's subsequent post that he suggests a US$40 NPV back of the enveloper at A$5/bl currently = US$3.75. So happens this equates with the US$3.70 estimate I have been using all along in my tables.
So FWIW and by way of example, taking a quick look "off line" at my original preferred “progress to 500mb” post SNE3 Feb success table this forecasts a value of around 9c at the current US$40, a tad short of where we are now with all the extended field hoopla.
Now if I substitute FAR’s US$10 at US$50 which was public knowledge at the time and rack it back to about US$6.20 at US$40 I still get a pre BEL1 forecast around 14c, -again without the extended field hoopla – suggesting perhaps a forecast of current price 15-16c with (and the table fails!)
Now FAR’s NPV estimate may be closer to the truth, I just don’t know – but plainly the market doesn’t buy it (or it does, but it doesn’t yet believe in 500mb which I find hard to sustain).
(20min delay)