That is all very flattering. I have used HC to try to work through my thoughts and understanding. Sorry if I inflict upon other investors who simply want binary answers to buy/sell.
I believe the issues confronting IFN are hard but do-able.
Refinance without the cash sweep conditions should happen by 31 March, but still at a relatively high interest rate. Investors will expect unconditional/cheap finance but this doesn't look possible. It is easy to jeer from the cheap seats.
Batteries are a priority, with immediate savings on frequency stabilisation ~$6m pa and despatch optionality exchanging off-peak production for peak supply. But large-scale batteries are hard to source cos everyone wants them.
Bodangora begins production June-August, with immediate cash and optionality benefits. This is a really big thing, adding 25% to output.
Cherry Tree is ready to commence construction. It would be nice to up-scale with bigger turbines but the Vic govt probably said no. Other projects seem much more distant and I an not sure why. There are big SA projects available yet no progress.
We marvel at the falling cost of wind turbines. However, this also discounts built/operating kit, making these assets less valuable. Hmmm.
Wind is an ideal compliment to solar. Solar is dispersed; wind is concentrated in few hands. I also like the EBIDTA margins. This business deserves a solid P/E.
There are many moving parts to the IFN equation and it would be easy for the BoD to make a serious mistake.
The refinance should unjam the balance sheet. The BoD will then be able to commit to significant expansion - within weeks, not months. I think the SP will then move up vigorously. That is how I am betting.
Ash
IFN Price at posting:
58.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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