morgan stanley bullish, page-13

CAPEX:

Total required: 2,570m
Spent to date: (1,820m)
Loan facility remaining: (50m)
KML Cash reserves (the JV): (265.4)m

Total required for JV: 434.6m

GBG's 50%: 217.3m

GBG independent (ie GBG): (264.4)m

Surplus CASH: 47.1m

Note KML and GBG are 2 separate entities guys. KML is the joint venture vehicle which owns Karara, GBG and Ansteel pay their contributions towards the project to that entity. This calculation is rough, as we don't know how much of that $265.4m in cash reserves relates to 'spent to date of $1.820m'. I imagine a lot does, as my calculation should show a shortfall due to FOREX. However the shortfall shouldn't be too bad, and they are looking at additional debt. GBG budgeted the USD loan @ 0.93, and the majority of the debt would have been drawn down between 1:1 and 1:1.03.

Note, working capital is for working capital of the Karara project. It is not for the actual CAPEX or FOREX blowout. I imagine when this is signed off we should have more clarity on the additional debt for FOREX shortfall.

Note we will receive some interest during each quarter for cash on hand, and we are also entitled to receive around $14m for ore shipped in the quarter. Infact probably more, as we haven't received any money for the ore shipped in the September quarter as well. However I'll assume that this money will be used for GBG's general working capital as the above assumed all cash reserves goes to the JV + FOREX shortfall.

In short, GBG is looking great and certainly cheap compared to peers. Well MGX is also dirt cheap :P