The perceived weakness seams to be broker crap that they must...

The perceived weakness seams to be broker crap that they must wright for protection.

As someone said its like selling computer equipment to microsoft. The difference IMO between being a problem or not is while they are selling to only one customer it is not a customer pacific item (e.g. It's not a tab key for a keyboard that can be useless if microsoft stop using a tab key). If Anstell pulled out of buying than there is the spot market (however if Anstell ain't buying then the chinese ain't buying & there may be a problem).

I thought I saw the broker mention Ansteel commited to 15mtpa I thought they were committed to every last piece? Is that the broker saying hey that is what GBG say they will produce so we just say they committed to that or is the actual case they are only in for that amount. If GBG ramps up to 30mtpa then what is the deal for the excess?

The quarterly out today.

These are my initial interpretations (lets see what media say)

Spent 1.82b of 2.57b budget = 750m left to spend to stay in budget & complete (pg 1)

1.15b of 1.2b loan facility drawn down = 50m left to drawdown (pg 6)

Cash reserves 265m (pg 6)

Working capital facility (TBA march) 336m

750m - 50m - 265m - 336 = 99m lets say 100m rounded short with no working capital to run the business by my simple calc.

Started initial discussions for extra debt facility to offset A$ vs. US$ conversion (pg6) - so this will help cover short fall & working capital (they don't mention how much.

GBG have 264m cash on hand (pg 8) You would have to think maybe another 100m to 200m combined contribution from Ansteel & GBG to complete project. Bringing GBG cash down from 264m to between 164m + 194m.

comments welcome - have researched past announcements any any extra contributions etc looks like either additional facilty only to cover shortfall or facility & contribution (my thought)

Still keen observer - timing of GBG movement & other investments will determine re-entry - But very keen to come back