Hey Doc,
the slowing growth in NEV car sales in China is on my radar too. I comfort myself meanwhile with the following:
1. The 40% yoy growth was anyhow my base case. That implies doubling sales every two years. At current numbers/forecasts China NEV sales
2019 1.5M
2021 3.0M
2023 6.0M
2025 12.0M (and game over)
2. The slower growth in the last months was attributed to the subsidy change. Sales trend should normalize / pick up from Sep or Oct on.
3. The data that is not in those numbers is sales mix and as a result average battery size.
The NEV data contains PHEV and BEV. But the trend is going clearer to BEV. That means a higher average battery capacity per car sold. If you additionally factor in the growing battery size in the BEVs alone the total installed battery capacity trends even bigger.
As a result I am estimating that although NEV sales are "only" up 40%YoY total battery capacity installed is more likely 100% up yoy. Maybe somebody more diligent than me works his way through Moneyball twitter (@DKurac) posts to confirm my estimates.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- PLS
- Morgan Stanley forecasts 30 per cent drop in lithium prices by 2025
Morgan Stanley forecasts 30 per cent drop in lithium prices by 2025, page-51
-
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 17 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add PLS (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
$2.82 |
Change
-0.030(1.05%) |
Mkt cap ! $8.491B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$2.83 | $2.92 | $2.81 | $38.41M | 13.49M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 78974 | $2.82 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$2.83 | 14578 | 5 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 78974 | 2.820 |
16 | 154131 | 2.810 |
39 | 593830 | 2.800 |
11 | 287633 | 2.790 |
12 | 232218 | 2.780 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
2.830 | 14578 | 5 |
2.840 | 30000 | 2 |
2.850 | 83702 | 6 |
2.860 | 361267 | 9 |
2.870 | 10000 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 18/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
PLS (ASX) Chart |