the slowing growth in NEV car sales in China is on my radar too. I comfort myself meanwhile with the following:
1. The 40% yoy growth was anyhow my base case. That implies doubling sales every two years. At current numbers/forecasts China NEV sales 2019 1.5M 2021 3.0M 2023 6.0M 2025 12.0M (and game over)
2. The slower growth in the last months was attributed to the subsidy change. Sales trend should normalize / pick up from Sep or Oct on.
3. The data that is not in those numbers is sales mix and as a result average battery size. The NEV data contains PHEV and BEV. But the trend is going clearer to BEV. That means a higher average battery capacity per car sold. If you additionally factor in the growing battery size in the BEVs alone the total installed battery capacity trends even bigger.
As a result I am estimating that although NEV sales are "only" up 40%YoY total battery capacity installed is more likely 100% up yoy. Maybe somebody more diligent than me works his way through Moneyball twitter (@DKurac) posts to confirm my estimates.
PLS Price at posting:
34.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)