FMG 0.00% $16.82 fortescue ltd

"Broker Bell Potter calculates Fortescue's break even price for...

  1. 3,510 Posts.
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    "Broker Bell Potter calculates Fortescue's break even price for iron ore production is $69 a tonne, and forecasts net profit will climb 70 percent to $2.98 billion in fiscal 2014."

    Surely profit estimate for 2014 is on the low side.

    Based on average IO price (realised selling price for FMG) being around $120mt and cost of production at $70.0mt resulting in $50.0mt profit.

    Estimated sales volume for 2014 is 130.0mt = $6.5b profit assuming IO realised selling price remains at these levels.

    Today is 14/11/2013, 6 weeks short of a full half year and IO price (fe grade) has traded above $130.0mt

    I think that their prediction of $2.8b profit is far too loan IMO, any others share this view?
 
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