1H17 result and Dec-16 quarter traffic/toll data released 7 February
We forecast +11% toll revenue growth delivering +13% EBITDA growth,
with Sydney a key driver assisted by acquired growth in Brisbane, ongoing ramp-up in the USA, and toll growth in Melbourne. Be cautious on the continuation of strong cost growth that emerged in FY16. The pcp benefitted from favourable movements in working capital and timing on interest payments that we assume are not repeated. This, combined with increased shares on issue, results in a forecast 7% decline in Free CF to 22.5 cps, compared to the 1H17 DPS of 25.0 cps (within the targeted 90-110% payout ratio).
TCL Price at posting:
$10.25 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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