0956 [Dow Jones]No real surprise, but Australian PM Howard says the election won't clash with football finals on last weekend of September, first week of October. These dates generally considered no-go zone politically because sports-mad Australians don't like being distracted from main event with a trip to the ballot box. Howard also tells Melbourne radio station 3AW election due around October/November but could occur any time after mid-2004.(VTB)
0955 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS upgrades Aristocrat (ALL) earnings forecasts as result of upgrade to expectations for Japan business. Net profit estimate increased 4.5% to A$86.8 million from A$83.1 million for FY04 and by 6.1% to A$106.9 million from A$100.8 million for FY05. Due to strong growing pachislo machine shipments and Aristocrat's "solid" business structure, broker increases segment contribution profit in FY04 from Japan by 19.5% to A$54.3 million. Sticks with Buy recommendation but lifts price target to A$4.45 from A$3.96 (latest A$3.65). (HGU)
0945 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD drop in last 24 hours should extend through previous low of 0.7295 but not clear if major support at 0.7255 will break, say CBA technical analysts; expect levels below 0.7295 won't be held for long in Asia, pullback to 0.7360-0.7390 should follow. Rise through 0.7400 would then suggest return to 0.7510. Break of 0.7255 should be contained at 200-day moving average at 0.7200. Pair now 0.7322.(JEG)
0945 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: CSFB cuts FY04 net profit forecast on Woolworths (WOW) by 0.9%, FY05 by 0.4% and FY06 0.2% following disappointing 3Q sales figures yesterday. "WOW's sales line continues to be impacted by strengthened competition and lower food inflation," CSFB tells clients in note. Retains Outperform recommendation and 12-month target share price of A$14.25 vs yesterday's close at A$11.50. (LXV)
0942 [Dow Jones] A slump in spot gold, now quoted at US$392.05/oz, down US$6.90 from late yesterday in Asia, following upbeat comments about economy by Fed Chairman Greenspan likely to weigh heavily on shares in gold miners. Stocks likely to suffer include Newcrest (NCM), Lihir (LHG), Oxiana (OXR), Kingsgate (KCN), Resolute (RSG), Croesus (CRS). Few, if any, will escape downdraft. Spot gold now has lost around US$30 in little over a week, in what appears to be something more substantial that just a technical correction. (RCB)
0939 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS maintains Neutral rating on Woolworths (WOW) following 3Q sales results. Sees Coles Myer (CML) emerging as more effective competitor on back of stronger petrol retailing performance. Maintains Woolworths EPS growth forecast for FY04 of 15% and share valuation at A$12.50; expecting WOW to maintain trading range around current levels; closed yesterday A$11.50, CML closed A$8.40. (WEL)
0937 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Goldman Sachs JBWere cuts Foodland (FOA) to Marketperform from Outperform due to "the potential for negative newsflow at Foodland's upcoming quarterly sales releases" mid-May and mid-August. Broker makes no change to earnings forecasts, keeps long-term Buy rating, "reflecting our view of a favorable outlook for the Progressive supermarket business and undemanding p/e multiple." Foodland shares closed yesterday at A$19.40. (LXV)
0935 [Dow Jones] Multiplex Group (MXGCA) calls trading halt pending release of statement on capital-raising. Expects securities to resume trading Friday morning, or earlier if statement comes before that. No connection to trading halt of Macquarie DDR Trust (MDT), according to Macquarie DDR company secretary John Wright. MDT expects its securities to resume trading Friday morning or earlier, if its statement to ASX comes before then. (HGU)
0933 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Goldman Sachs JBWere cuts short-term rating on Woolworths (WOW) to Marketperform from Outperform after retailer's 3Q sales came in below expectations. "The market will need to see stabilization in supermarket sales growth before regaining confidence in the EPS growth outlook," GS tells clients in note. Retains long-term Buy and A$13.50 valuation vs yesterday's closing price of A$11.50. (LXV)
0928 [Dow Jones] Telstra (TLS) reports 3Q sales up 1.0% to A$5.01 billion, 5.7% growth in mobile revenues. Broker at major bank views result as "a little bit ahead of expectations," sees domestic component as OK with Asian result a little below expectations. Internet and IP revenue up 28%; 113% increase in broadband subscribers following recent cut in monthly access fees for new subscribers. TLS closed Tuesday A$4.75. (WEL)
0925 [Dow Jones] AUD/USD climbs off overnight low, finds support in early Asia; market overall on hold for next batch of Greenspan rhetoric while a host of other Fed officials will speak before weekend. Question mark hangs over whether Greenspan will add to or water down remarks from last night. AUD/USD support at 0.7300 key, with major support at 0.7250. EUR/USD also a powerful lead for pair. AUD/USD now 0.7329. (JEG)
0920 [Dow Jones] Watch now on Greenspan Mark II, where he may clarify his overnight remarks or add weight to them; on pricing pressure front, he said overnight "pricing power is gradually being restored," specter of deflation is "no longer an issue before us." Says CSFB's David Ging, "it's particularly his comment about deflation not being an issue" that's problem for market; "it's not what the bulls wanted to hear" and "it shows you how nervous the market is about what he'll say" later. Most expect him to raise view on current conditions, stay noncommittal on timing of hike.(RXM)
0919 [Dow Jones] Markets in frenzy overnight on McTeer, Greenspan, but some say they overreacted: Brown Brothers Harriman's Lara Rhame says "I didn't see anything that we haven't already heard from other Fed officials, and in fact it fell short of some of the more hawkish comments we've heard"; Fed fund futures were basically flat on day with under 10% chance of May hike, around 32% chance of June hike. Reid Thunberg's Bob Reid says conditions still don't warrant hike this year; "a tightening is unlikely until 2005, and we expect that Greenspan will signal" this tonight.(RXM)
