great depression fear if pandemic hits

Great Depression fear if pandemic hits
August 19, 2005

Financial analysts have predicted that an avian flu pandemic will have dire consequences on the global economy, with its impact comparable to the Great Depression of the 1930s.

In a first-of-its-kind report on the financial impact of a possible pandemic, BMO Nesbitt Burns researchers in Canada warned that an outbreak could devastate the airline and hospitality industries, trigger mass foreclosures and bankruptcies, decimate insurance companies, and disrupt food chains as people switched from animal to vegetable diets.

Losses would amount to hundreds of billions of dollars.

``Its economic impact could be comparable - at least for a short time - to the Great Depression of the 1930s,'' said BMO chief economist Sherry Cooper. But the report - dubbed ``An Investor's Guide to Avian Flu'' - ``is not meant to be alarmist,'' she said since an avian flu pandemic is unlikely to occur anytime soon and would only last a few months.

Influenza A type H5N1 was first discovered in terns in South Africa in 1961. The first known human infections were in Hong Kong in 1997 when six of 18 people infected died.

Bird flu has killed more than 60 people across Asia, 42 of them in Vietnam, since late 2003, and ravaged poultry stocks in the region as well as in parts of Russia and Kazakhstan.

Heath experts have warned that the bird flu virus could spark a global pandemic if it develops the ability to spread quickly among humans.

There are no vaccines available to curb its spread in humans, although some are being developed. Only nine countries have the capacity to produce vaccines on a commercial scale.

Using current manufacturing processes, they are unlikely to be able to deliver enough bird flu vaccines to stop a pandemic, said Donald Coxe, co-author of the report.

In the event of a pandemic, deaths could top more than 50 million, according to health experts cited in the report. Tens of millions would fall sick and ten of millions more would be too afraid to go to work.

With nations enforcing quarantines, Coxe said, ``work absenteeism from deaths and illness would skyrocket.'' Stock markets would shut, attendances at sporting events, theme parks and movies would plunge - if the facilities were not closed in any event - while patronage of bars, restaurants and hotels would plummet.

As more people stayed home, electronic commerce might flourish, as long as postal and courier services were maintained. But technology industries heavily linked to Taiwan and the mainland would probably suffer supply-chain disruptions, said Coxe.

``Financial markets could prove as vulnerable as unvaccinated humans,'' he added.

Commodity stocks, which are currently among the best performing sectors due largely to economic strength in Asia, would be hit ``hard'' as demand from India and China collapsed.

Those two countries, with 35 percent of the world's population and the fastest growing economies, are directly responsible for growth in other Asian countries as well as Russia and Latin America, and boost commodity-producing countries such as Canada and Australia.

Treasury markets would be vulnerable to a sell-off by Asian banks whose holdings, particularly those of China and Japan, are enormous.

And the high death rate would create a housing oversupply and puncture the current real estate bubble, said Cooper.

``In relatively short order, the deceleration of almost all non-essential economic activity would trigger a rampant decline in spending,'' leading to deflation and massive job losses, she concluded.