Updated “Best Bets” for near-term significant (potential company makers) oil/gas wildcat exploration drilling. The results include full dilution for options where appropriate, plus small adjustments for free carried stocks (MOG, LKO in Gilbert and NWE in Magnolia) including adjustments for quality growing/upcoming stocks (ADI, AWE, FAR, NWE) relative to their well peers. These adjustments are relatively insignificant compared to the projected gains for a successful strike, but assist with peer selection for any given well when the projected gains are close.
The new values reflect Friday 30 Sept closing prices, and include the well name, latest drilling date, oil/gas mboe mean size, listed stock codes, and best bets in order of potential preference with their associated mean share price percentage gains if a strike is successful.
These wildcat wells are significant high-risk/high-reward speculative ventures, so care should be taken if you decide to have a flutter. In the context of speculative energy sector trading, the following companies offer some of the best short-term profit making opportunities at the moment.
1) Gilbert-1, Oct wk-1/2, 56mbo, Stocks: MOG, GOP, EBR, LKO Best Bets: GOPO (opts), GOP, MOGO (opts), MOGOA (opts), EBRO (opts) Mean Gains%: 4500, 2200, 1200, 500, 500
2) Maclean-1, Oct Wk-3/4, 77mbo, Stocks: MOG, BAS, EBR Best Bets: MOGO (opts) MOGOA (opts), EBRO (opts), BAS, MOG Mean Gains%: 6500, 2700, 2100, 1700, 1400
The above two wells are running back to back – Gilbert first then Maclean. Both LKO and MOG are free carried in Gilbert. Currently BAS is in a capital raising trading halt so further dilution will most likely occur, which will reduce the potential gains. It should be noted that both MOGO and EBRO convert to (1 MOG + 1 MOGOA) and (1 EBR + 1 EBROA) respectively, hence the greater leverage gains for MOGO/EBRO over MOGOA/EBROA. This seems to have been overlooked by the market at present.
3) Eagle-2. Nov, 42mbo, Stocks: FAR, SUR, LKO, VPE Best Bets: SUR, FAR,VPE, LKO. Mean Gains%: 220, 210, 190, 160
Note: Eagle-2 could be considered more of an appraisal well, rather than a wildcat.
4) Magnolia, Nov, 60mbo, Stocks: ADI, NWE, AWE, BUY Best Bets: BUY, NWE, ADI Mean Gains%: 480, 470, 460
5) Sugarloaf, Late’05 Early’06, 100mbo, Stocks: ADI, AUT. Best Bets: ADI, AUT Mean Gains%: 650, 430
6) Jacala, Jan’06, 1000mbo, Stocks: TAP, ROC, BHP Best Bets: TAP, ROC Mean Gains%: 760, 530
