If we take current revenue at 1bn. 20% growth over 10 years would mean 6.2bn revenue in 10 years. I think they are being too conservative with their revenue or they are being too generous with how much market share they expect. current infant formula market in USA is around 20bn. Say this grows at a measly 5% per annum. In 10 years it will be 33bn USD. 15% of that in NZD (exchange rate 0.7) is 7.1 bn NZD. That is, the infant formula sales in China alone would be more than the 20%growth they are forecasting.
That is just from infant formula sales in China.. no account taken of AU/NZ , other SEA countries and ofcourse the big one... being USA.
If we truly did capture 15% of China market share, the share price would be over well over a hundred AUD
A2M Price at posting:
$11.33 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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