No prize for guessing that in the property price crash of 2010,...

No prize for guessing that in the property price crash of 2010, the Aussie sub-prime mass will be the first cards to fall.

Shane Oliver should not call the Fujitsu survey scary. He knew this was coming. Some now predict a cash rate setting to be 6% if inflation proves �somewhat� robust. This will be a 100% increase in interest rate liability for those who bought when rate were lowered to the emergency 60-year low last year. However, if inflation starts to runaway, all bets are off as to how high rates will go.

Ominously, Westpac and CBA already tightened their LVR, effectively halving how much can be borrowed. This is just the start of their loan rationing cycle as more bad debts pile on.

Does the $3.4B given to the 5 sub-prime lenders last week by the government to prop up their funding look desperate? That's a drop in the bucket as between CBA and Westpac alone, $90 billions in mortgages were written out in 2009.

ANZ and NAB aren�t going t pick up the slack (and the ever increasing risks) as the whole thing start to look like a sea of red ink.

Rudd was desperate to call an early election over the ETS to avoid electoral carnage due to the national mortgage meltdown (problem is Copenhagen flopped and now he tries to use the excuse of the Medical insurance rebate).

One thing is certain, 2010 will be the year the Aussie housing crash will make international headlines. Has anyone wondered why in the last few weeks we have been bombarded with fast and furious back-to-back with RE propaganda about chronic shortages and anticipated price rises from the likes of APM, REIV, BIS Shrapnel and the other usual suspects ?

Steve keen needs to revise his numbers from 40% to minimum 50% (within 2 years).

For Aussie out suburbs (FHBVille), I�ll go one further at 60%. This is around the magnitude of the falls in Stockton California (the epicenter of the American FHBVille).

Bear in mind the American bubble was just a fraction the size of ours. Ear plugs anyone ??