interesting message today. I wonder if it will lift share price. Somehow I don't think so...
GENERAL COMMENTS ON OUR BUSINESS PLAN
We have remained focussed on our business objectives for the year
outlined at the AGM last year by Mosaic Chairman-Dr Don Stammer, and
the Managing Director-Dr Howard Brady. However, as mentioned above,
due to events outside our control there has been some delay in our
drilling program which was to start in May; otherwise we are on track
with our objectives for the year.
Of major concern to the Mosaic Board - and the oil & gas industry in
general - is the low share price of exploration/production companies
such as ours. This situation has become a common factor to the
industry and shareholders should be aware that at the annual
conference of the Australian Petroleum, Production and Exploration
Association (APPEA) in March, attended by over 1,000 delegates from
the Australian and international exploration industry, much attention
was focussed on issues affecting smaller companies.
The consensus of a specially convened meeting during the APPEA
conference of delegates from small companies was that the present
share market is placing no value on their undeveloped potential. In
this area Mosaic is not alone. There was a common complaint that
stockbrokers have little interest in producing research on small
companies and that the number of journalists who follow and
understand the oil exploration industry is dwindling.
But it is not all gloom.
Shareholders should be aware that the oil industry is beginning to
wake up to the potential of the Permian Tinowon sandstone in the
southern Surat Basin.
While this area was 'out of fashion' when Mosaic aggressively
purchased acreage and infrastructure in 2000, we consistently stated
that major Permian gas reserves are present in the area but have been
masked because mud drilling techniques blocked Permian gas
reservoirs.
We also hold that there is much oil potential in the Tinowon
sandstone also masked by previous drilling techniques - especially in
the Downlands and Spring Grove areas.
In April this year, Oil Company of Australia (a subsidiary of Origin
Energy) ("OCA") began a 4 well drilling program in the Tinowon north
of Churchie. Although OCA's drilling was marred by the unfortunate
rig accident and fire in late March, it has already encountered good
Permian gas flows using nitrogen drilling at Horseshoe 2 and Myall
Creek 8.
In addition, Permian Tinowon gas has been encountered 20 kms to the
east of Churchie and the Queensland Mines Department has received
many applications for Permian acreage to the east of Mosaic's
acreage.
These areas are deeper and far more expensive to drill than Mosaic's
acreage.
In Mosaic's view the Permian will eventually reveal a major success
story. As more discoveries are made it will become clearer than an
exciting gas province missed for 40 years has been exposed. And a
substantial part of that province is in Mosaic's acreage.
Mosaic is communicating this exciting story to the financial markets
and, as it unfolds, we expect our shareholders will reap the rewards.
BUSINESS PLAN MILESTONES
Last November we outlined to shareholders, the Mosaic business plan
for the coming year with development/exploration pathways at
Churchie, Waggamba, Downlands and Silver Springs. The latest reports
on those developing sites are:
CHURCHIE DEVELOPMENT
(Churchie Production Licence: Mosaic 49% and Operator, Santos Ltd
51%).
During January and February 2003 the 5 kilometre 15 cm diameter
Churchie pipeline was built under the operatorship of Mosaic.
Construction, which included one creek crossing, was trouble free, on
time and on budget. The pipeline joins with the Silver Springs to
Wallumbilla pipeline owned by Santos and Mosaic. Santos, as operator
of that pipeline, welded the final connection of the Churchie line to
the Wallumbilla line.
The Churchie pipeline terminates at a gathering point which will
accept flow lines from future Churchie wells. The 2 km flow line from
the Churchie 3 well has been built. The gathering point has also been
designed as a separator station. In the future, condensate could be
separated at this gathering station, tanked and trucked to the Moonie
pipeline. At the moment the condensate is being removed at the LPG
Plant at Wallumbilla.
In the coming June Quarter a dehydrator will be connected which will
lower the moisture content of the gas. This reduces the possibility
of rust developing in the line and also of ice forming in the line
during the winter months.
CHURCHIE DRILLING AND TESTING PROGRAM
As part of this year's (delayed) drilling programme, a Churchie 4
(Mosaic 49%) well is to be drilled. Mosaic has high expectations for
this new well which if successful will support production on the
Churchie field and add to market deliverability. The well was planned
for May but is now scheduled for the September Quarter due to the
unfortunate rig fire referred to above.
CHURCHIE 2:
During the Quarter the Permian Tinowon was tested at Churchie 2 and
during an initial brief drill stem test the well flowed 5.5 million
cubic feet a day.
CHURCHIE 1A:
In May a workover rig will be moved to Churchie 1A to cleanout the
well bore. The well bore will need to be reamed and checked for
stability before testing as there is some loose rock material in the
well bore.
CHURCHIE GAS MARKETING
Mosaic, on behalf of the Churchie Joint Venture, has begun marketing
Churchie gas to the Queensland market. Between 2005 and 2008 most of
the major gas contracts in Queensland come up for renewal. Our
business plan is to place Churchie gas in some of these contracts. It
is important for shareholders to realise that a gas market is not
like the oil market. In oil you can sell as much as you can produce
at the world oil price. With gas sales there are no price controls
and marketing decisions are complex.
In Mosaic's case we see no reason to enter the market as a big volume
discounter to the detriment of our long term future. Gas marketing is
shrouded in confidentiality agreements and complex negotiations;
hence there is little we can tell shareholders at this stage except
that we are actively engaged in gas marketing. Our policy is to
always to achieve the best return of value on our shareholders'
assets
WAGGAMBA DEVELOPMENT
(WAGGAMBA AREA-MOSAIC 100%)
EXPLORATION AND DRILLING PROGRAM
An alternative rig will be contracted to replace the damaged Century
Rig 1 and Mosaic intends to drill at Waggamba in the September
Quarter. During this time we also plan a short seismic survey to
further delineate Permian rocks in the Waggamba area. In the
meantime, we have pushed forward with plans for a Waggamba production
licence and we have scouted possible pipeline routes.
SILVER SPRINGS AREA
We continue to examine ways to improve production of oil and gas at
Silver Springs. In the March Quarter we made a thorough study of all
the Taylor oilwells and have selected a site for a possible future
oil well (Taylor 18). Mosaic is also looking at new technology for
horizontal drilling in the Tinker area.
DOWNLANDS AREA
One of Mosaic's stated business aims for 2003 is to increase oil
production within the Downlands production licence. It is our
conviction that the oil flows at Downlands 3 are poor due to the
water in the drilling mud reacting with clays which swell and block
production in the oil reservoir - similar to what we have proven with
the gas flows at Churchie.
During the March Quarter the re-mapping of the Downlands structure in
light of the 2002 seismic survey continued. Once this mapping is
finished we hope to be able to propose an oil development well to our
Joint Venture partner, Santos, for the September Quarter.
FINANCES
The Mosaic Board expects to report a profit for the year ending in
June. You should note that the Quarterly cash-flow report posted on
the Mosaic website only records payments made or received. The cash
flow does not show any payments for any product sales in March. In
general, payments for oil and gas lag production by about two months.
The accounts show $3 million of development expenditure for the nine
months to March 31 st 2003 and cash reserves at the end of March of
$6.4 million.
Statistics for the March Quarter 2003 are:
Oil Production: 14,090 bbls (December Q.2002 16,006 bbls)
Gas Production: 223,919 Gj (December Q.2002 256,478 Gj)
LPG Production: 769 tonnes (December Q.2002 752 tonnes)
Quarterly share market
turnover: 24 million shares (December Q.2002 41 million shares)
Shareholder numbers 5,997 (December Q.2002 6,017)
Gas production was affected by the shutdown of Silver Springs and
Downlands for over a week to allow for the Churchie pipeline
connection to be made. Churchie production began in late March.
We are working towards the successful marketing of Churchie gas and
increased oil production. The achievement of these goals will result
in an increase over our present revenue base of approximately $10
million a year.
CONCLUSION
At this stage your company is in a solid financial position and
growing its cash sales.
Despite setbacks outside of our control we will quickly reconfigure
our drilling schedule to further expand our oil production. We are
developing our gas reserves to take advantage of upcoming
opportunities in the market and are progressing those sales
opportunities. We remain focussed on developing our business plan to
bring rewards to our shareholders - both from our existing production
and our under developed potential.
Dr Howard Brady CEO.
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