Purple now you are asking a question that is impossible to...

Purple now you are asking a question that is impossible to answer as it reflects into so many areas.

As I have a long and varied 'connection' and interest in China I liked the simlicity of your question yet like much about China there is no clear answer.
It touchs on such things as Chinese internal and external politics.
Economic issues within China and outside China "Vis the current issues about this aspect with the WTO to say the least"!

Internally they are trying to "forcfully encourage" maunufacturing by "forcing" foriegn investment to manufacture in China simply by making available RE's easily available to local manufacturers. ....by limiting the exports of RE they are inducing companies to locate inside China. A good example of the opposite result is the "great" deal that Lynas has done with Seimans of course.
Anyway there are many predictions that China will have to import RE's some time in the future because they themselves will not have sufficient to satisfy demand.

Notwithsatnding the above, China is also in a position to manipulate the prices by playing with the the export quotas that would of course then spin of to impact the external values and filter thru to other producers. IE LYC.

So in short your question is impossible to answer with any factual information.

Your question is one of the integral parts of the gambling process in this casino.

But some mate and sit back and watch the value grow over the next few days/weeks/years.