most likely of the aspen scenarios

If the Aspen-GSK deal completes, there are a number of scenarios that could eventuate, all of which are either neutral for Reddy's/ACL or strongly positive. I think the following is the most likely scenario:

Once the Apotex contract expires (possibly in a few months, but probably no more than a year), Aspen will supply the US market with branded 'Aspen Arixtra' only. On this scenario, the US market reverts back to a duopoly (viz., Aspen and Reddy's), such that margins increase, and Reddy's market share likely edges closer to 50% in both retail and hospital. The upshot for ACL is that Peter Smith's earlier bullish predictions re US profit share start looking realistic again (i.e., profit share to ACL from the US market alone in the region of $20-30mill pa).

Under the deal described in the media, Aspen are buying the French plant that produces Arixtra, which is also the same plant that supplies Apotex. So, on all realistic scenarios that I can think of, if the Aspen-GSK deal completes, Apotex's days as a generic fonda supplier are numbered.

It is also noteworthy that GSK want to hold onto India and China. Arixtra sales in these countries are tiny at present, but GSK obviously see huge growth potential and reasonable margins in both of these markets. This augers well for Reddy's entrance into both markets (Reddy's have just this month started to supply India, I understand that they expect to start supplying China next year).

If this deal is confirmed, and if the US market reverts to a duopoly, I think ACL will immediately be rerated substantially higher, even without any positive oncology updates.