Tim has said on a number of occasions including interviews that are available on these threads and on the annual results call that they do not intend to do a capital raising, and that they would rather do a JV deal with a partner if necessary.
The last 4 1/2 years have been transformative, from large levels of debt and tough pricing, to $120M AUD in net cash, around $100M USD in operating cash generation for calendar 2020 (subject to pricing, volumes and grades), and acquisition of the Toliara project. At the same time the share price rose from its low of around ~3c to 35c and has stayed in the 20c to 30c band generally (excluding the Covid dip opportunity).
Based on the NPV in the DFS this stock is worth about 70c per share plus the value of Kenya operations. There is a Kenyan govt official with a KPI to have BSE operating in Kenya in 2030 so I feel that BSE Kenya has value beyond the 30c per share it will generate from the remaining known mine life at Kwale. So far we're at a valuation of $1 in my mind.
Once the debt at Toliara is repaid the remaining 25+ years of Toliara cash flow are worth $2+ per share on an NPV basis. Add future Kenya value and you could see $2.50+ in 5 years time. Note also that less than half of what's in the ground in Toliara is included in the current plans and cash flows, Toliara mine life could far exceed 50 years. It's possible that the cash generated once Toliara is running will fund 10c+ pa in dividends.
If prices were to remain at the levels used in the DFS and ignoring all other uncertainties and vicissitudes then $1 invested now gets about $25 of dividends over the next century in real dollars.
Summary of what I've heard from company announcements: ongoing dividend, not intending to do capital raise, operating cash generation of around $100M pa for the remainder of Kwale mine life, dividend grows substantially with Toliara, lots more mineral to be included in final Toliara operations and therefore longer mine life.
All IMHO, DYOR
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Mkt cap ! $329.8M |
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13 | 938190 | 0.270 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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