Siddley,
Re my discussion with PB at the May EGM, I really can't add more to my initial report back post.
For me, I am continuing to focus on the following points made by PB:
- Tivan Proceeding well & to plan
- Results from pilot to form key input to the DFS
- Completion of DFS is planned for the end of June '15 with results likely to be released mid July
- Very positive vibe for 2nd half of 2015
I know we would like everything to be neatly packaged & delivered on time, but I for one will cut them some slack as there are so many 3rd parties involved in bringing a range of key components to fruition for the DFS, potential financing, refinery construction etc.
Here are some thoughts & challenges that I see Management have in meeting the current timelines:
Tivan
The final pilot run by CSIRO/Mets is subject to SMS review & input.Wont be surprised if some finessing is taking place here?
Malaysian Govt. needs to provide TNG with manufacturing licence for Tivan Refinery;
Presume all Tivan related parameters need to be locked down prior to DFS input.
Binding Agreements
Woojin/Hyundai/Posco/Gunvor et al;
Financing clearly a key outcome from bindings;
Recent global momentum (2015) re large/small scale battery storage & EV technology could be causing a rethink on bindings?
Global economic growth is below trend. Impact is apparent in China/Korea/Japan. Unclear if this may impact potential near term financing for Mt Peake?
Very significant legal work & negotiation behind the scenes to progress from LOI's to Bindings.
Resources Sector
Remains subdued for junior OZ minors;
Outlook for growth momentum from global commodity markets still subdued;
Momentum & increased foreign investment into the Oz mining sector could be some time away?
Mt Peake
Snowden is completing an optimised Pit design, development strategy, mining schedule & likely CAPEX and Opex costs as key inputs to the DFS. This is a serious piece of work;
From what I understand from my discussions last May, it appears that Snowden has assessed that the pit walls can be shallower allowing for conveyor belt ore transportation rather than trucking. This will have a positive impact on production costs & reduced carbon footprint;
All other DFS key inputs must be finalised as well viz. overall construction, transport; water, power infrastructure, freight, DRW port, shipping, EIS, indigenous agreement, manpower needs et. al.
Malaysia
Gain Govt. licence for Tivan manufacturing plant;
Finalise overall Design/Build Construct for plant (POSCO?)
Woojin agreement re their vanadium technology IP
DFS
A large piece of work;
Given the many challenges touched on above, I won't be surprised if completion of the DFS runs a few weeks past mid July? However, PB is still saying delivery in July, but clearly there is much relience on 3rd parties.
Reckon PB would want to go the Kalgoorlie presentation 2nd week August with the DFS & a binding or two in his back pocket though.
So, I simply say stay calm & try not to get caught up in some of the nervousness displayed by some on HC.
Cheers.
Jvest
(20min delay)