move over punters, make some room, page-15

Thank you Gottalove.

Closer to home.

I have enjoyed coming to terms with everyone’s opinions on this thread. A very common denominator is the confidence. Easily assessed by how quiet the thread is with only about 6 regular posters.

I can only now share some personal thoughts, so the below is written, and intended to be read in that light. In no way refer to this as financial advice, or recommendation to either buy or sell.

Happy to receive any feedback on my post…for or against, as I enjoy learning strategy’s, interpretation and others styles of investment catalysts.

How do we measure value of SWE now?

What I asked myself before starting to post (and buy) on SWE, as it is an easy to ask question so early in their Companies life was; (imagine that SWE is still in IPO offer stage)….

Question:
If SWE was to list now, with a new prospectus issued with updated information regarding Kenya & Tanzania results would I buy into the IPO, and secondly, what price would I buy into that IPO.

My answer to those two questions was:
Yes
And $0.50 cents.

How I have come up with this is:
1. New info (near EARS results)

2. The director’s experience (Leadership, Legal, Local, Exploration, and Financial) spectrum all covered nicely and more than adequately.

3. I also believe that in the current market cycles, that the Directors would have been well aware of the difficulties in raising a successful IPO. I therefore feel that $0.20 cents was probably heavily discounted to ensure success (remember, we didn’t know what we do now)

4. I few years ago, this IPO would probably have been listed for $0.50 - $1.00, given the low number of shares having been issued, also makes for a double POSITIVE.

5. Having managed their requirements to-date, ahead of schedule and on/below budget signals positive decisive management moving forward.

6. Early entry into a relatively high percentage ownership Company of Key desired Acreage.

7. Solid, motivated partners. (Focus moved to East Africa)

8. Analyst reports recommending $0.40 cents per share seems to be light, but hey, they are the experts? (have previously stated that I think Fosters is more cautious than others…a good thing.)

So to me, (my opinion) there is much potential ahead, even before the drill hits the ground.

Again this is all, how “I” came to see potential value and making up my mind to make an investment with SWE. I cannot emphasis enough, that people should conduct their own research, Due Diligence, and apply their own decisions and strategy’s to ANY investment.

Should SWE get a drill into the ground in 2014 (already
budgeted in for 1), and they manage to pull off a strike in that first drill, similar to what has been found at either Twiga South or Ngamia (Block 10BB in the Lokichar Basin), would catapult SWE immediately.

Info:
Twiga South-1
Constrained flow rates of 2812 bopd and unconstrained, flowed at 5200 bopd.
http://www.tullowoil.com/index.asp?pageid=137&category=&year=Latest&month=&tags=77&newsid=833

As you can see, a similar discovery in Block 12b would slightly beneficial to SWE (have I downplayed the positive enough?)

Ngamia-1
Undergoing testing. With the first of 6 zones already showing 281 bopd. Still to test the productive Auwerwer Zone. A good production Zone found in the Twiga South drill.

The Financial/Commercial viability of these two discoveries goes without saying and if used to “indicate” potential for SWE, provides ample room both speculation and investment style approaches to O&G early stage operations.

I find it surprising, but very pleasing to see SWE so quiet on HC.

In my opinion, I think SWE will quietly appreciate over time. Progressive appreciation is far better than a quick jump I feel. With such a low number of shares available for sale, anyone wanting to take a strategic stake in the EARS via SWE’s holding is going to have to pay up which tends to make me think, if this occurs, it will happen in a structured way to slowly draw out sellers as it goes up/down/up & down/sideways.

Recent lows has shown how little this take to move and the noticeable increase in buy depth supports the ideal of past sellers, selling for reasons other than potential.
The positive to this being she’s back moving up, and sell depth is decreasing, whilst buy depth increasing on an almost 3-1 basis, with a high margin leaning towards the sellers (buyers have to pay up if they want in, in any reasonable holding).

Low volume, high priced sellers have also popped up, see sellers at 28 & 28.5, which makes up about 20% of total available on-screen at the moment.

I also see small buyers (as they appear, not a recommendation to buy or sell) invaluable. Buying small parcels in a tight company,
i.e. say 10,000 share parcels as an investment style, provides stability and makes premature accumulation that much harder for someone seeking a strategic stake, without them paying up for the PRIVILAGE of the EARS exposure.

There are wider positive implications for SWE in seeing a higher SP.

An extremely positive day today, and this week given the market.....Cant wait for a good day :)