@
ohmikeyohIf there are additional reservoirs unrelated to Marti/Alameda, I will be cheering (because that might indicate there is more oil).
However, if you look at the 2D seismic analysis that the company did, their interpretation was that Marti-5 intercepts the reservoir previously named "Alameda" (see below ASX:MAY, 26/11/2021)
So when Linebacker11 says "you are saying that A1/A3 zones doesn't necessarily equal the zones from the Marti wells?... ... 100% Mike ..." (source:
72587385) essentially he is doubting the seismic interpretation of the qualified professionals without seeing the seismic data himself.
In other words, he is making a negative proposition. One could make an infinite amount of negative claims, (which tends to be Linebacker11's prerogative) when it comes to considering a negative: "In empirical contexts (such as the evaluating the existence or nonexistence of unicorns), inductive reasoning is often used for establishing the plausibility of a claim based on observed evidence. Though inductive reasoning may not provide absolute certainty about negative claims, this is only due to the nature of inductive reasoning; inductive reasoning provides proof from probability rather than certainty. Inductive reasoning is also unable to provide absolute certainty about positive claims." source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burden_of_proof_(philosophy)#Proving_a_negative
If you consider the available evidence we have before us published on the ASX, I think using inductive reasoning the balance of probabilities shifts in favour of Marti-5 intersecting the previously named "Alameda" reservoir.
source:
26 Nov 2021, ASX:MAY, AGM 2021 Presentation
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02458218-3A582207We have been through this in great detail:
Exhibit A)
The visual comparison of Amistad's oil compared to the lower sheets is very obvious."Significant volumes of oil on the shakers at intercept of "N" structure" (lower sheet).
source:
1 Feb 2022, ASX:MAY, Drilling update at Alameda-1 - Strong oil shows https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02481902-3A586404?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4Compared to Amistad:
Source: 27 Sep 2021, ASX:MAY, Operations Update - Encouraging oil shows at Alameda-1 https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02426453-3A576721
Exhibit B) Samples taken from leaking suspended wells yielding up to ~
38 API oil.
source: 24 Sep 2020, ASX:MAY, Block 9 Commencement of Drilling Preparations,
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02284734-3A550952Exhibit C) Contemporary posts when the "1 Feb 2022, ASX:MAY, Drilling update at Alameda-1 - Strong oil shows" first came out:
“it looks like light oil too” Deus_EX_102 01/02/22 59264614
“You couldn’t have made a better light oil pic by pouring a jerry can of diesel on a patch of dirt.” justinmetals 01/02/22 59270924
“Certainly the oil in that pic looked light” thecone 01/02/22 59281490
“the oil looks light, if the permeability is there, this is going to be a monster.” alexeiii 01/02/22 59287685
“Add in the premium for light oil which is very sought after in Cubs to blend with predominantly heavy local oil and we sought have a great outcome.” rivermore 03/02/22 59326997
“highly pressurised, filled to spill light oil Alameda discovery.” justinmetals 06/02/22 59392028
“Having worked well site for many years, I did like the photo of the shale shakers a couple of reports ago, which showed oil (light in colour).” SurferSam 16/02/22 59600465
“Light oil, filled to spill and loads of pressure.” justinmetals 19/02/22 59680367
“And the best thing is, it's light crude not heavy.” good2no 24/02/22 59796737
Exhibit D)
source:https://www.melbana.com/site/PDF/e4eb29fa-6789-460c-875a-0452ed278dea/Block9CommencementofDrillingPreparations----
Why didn't Alameda-1 get representative samples? (
what Andrew Purcell thought of the images of the lower sheet 'oil over the shakers').
Andrew Purcell, executive chairman of ASX:MAY: “We have a second well that we have designed to go back and test the two deeper sections, Alameda and Marti. All three of these reservoirs exhibited high pressure and strong flows [shows] of moveable hydrocarbons. Alameda and Marti, and Marti in particular we very high in pressure, and so having the two wells means we can design them differently. And the second well its design is to go back down into those deeper higher pressure sections and armed now with what we know we’re very confident we can manage all of this. The wells have been designed accordingly the rigs hooked up accordingly, and we know probably where to stop, which is equally important, especially in that Marti well. We’re very excited by the flow down there but we got close to a faulted zone probably
that made it very difficult to do any else other than control the well. So these two wells together are our immediate forward appraisal program in Cuba, which we just released the rig a week or two ago from the Zapato well site. We’re doing some much-needed maintenance on it. Our contractors are doing much-needed maintenance on it. That rig has been drilling almost continuously since September of last year. It’s good enough, easily good enough to drill that section again, it’s done it once before it just showed what it’s capable of doing in the very hard drill we encountered at Zapato. And for all the issues that occurred in Alameda and Zapato, the capacity of the rig was not the driving factor for the issues that we faced.
It’s to do with the lithologies, the chemistries of the fluids, inventory not performing correctly down hole.. the actual top drive, the rig, its capabilities are perfectly adequate for what we want to do.” Source: Investor Stream Webinar Series: Melbana Energy (ASX:MAY) Investor Briefing (November 15, 2022) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydrJ5J5hf9c&ab_channel=InvestorStream
Andrew Purcell, executive chairman of ASX:MAY: “What we’re hoping, because we’re deeper a) we have a lighter crude, (the deeper it is the hotter it is and the bugs that eat the light end off the hydrocarbon chains can’t survive there, typically they like crude). That’s been one of our theories as to why we’ve done what we’ve done in Alameda. And we had tantalising glimpses of that in the oil over the shakers while we were drilling in Alameda, but we couldn’t get a sample, because it was mixed with muds. But if it’s lighter, likely the recovery rates will be greater than 5%, so tick one, better than 388 million barrels of prospective resource, then the second thing is the pressure of the reservoirs. You don’t need more pressure, you [don’t] have to be injecting pressures into the reservoirs to encourage flow, it just wants to come at you. And we saw plenty of pressure in Alameda. That’s an encouraging second tick for the performance of the reservoir but we have to test it.” Source: Investor Stream Webinar Series: Melbana Energy (ASX:MAY) Investor Briefing (November 15, 2022) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydrJ5J5hf9c&ab_channel=InvestorStream
----
Alex (Host): “Just going back to the drilling of the Marti well if I can Andrew, how will you approach the drilling differently to last when the pressure caused the problems that it did.”
Andrew Purcell, executive chairman of ASX:MAY: “Different blow-out preventer, different orientation of the well (to avoid some of the areas we did find challenging with the previous design), it’s a balance with the fact that we did like the pressure in those zones. So, going back in with a new design, better safety protections at the surface, better familiarity with what lies ahead, standard casing sizes to reduce the complexity of the well. The first time we didn’t know what we were going to encounter, we built a lot of contingencies in to be able to adapt to what we found, and if we hadn’t built all those contingencies in we never would have got down to TD… but now that you know what’s there, you go in for the environment that you encountered it’s just a matter of engineering for it. Source: Investor Stream Webinar Series: Melbana Energy (ASX:MAY) Investor Briefing (November 15, 2022) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydrJ5J5hf9c&ab_channel=InvestorStream
Needless to say... I am very excited for what is about to happen.
(20min delay)
