I agree with harvett - too many uncertainties wrt US dollar, not...

I agree with harvett - too many uncertainties wrt US dollar, not to mention liquidity.

I do not believe there is a true intrinsic value to gold, it is highly speculative.

However, there is a large disconnect between physical demand, supply and indicated price. IMO, within one year, something has got to give: 70 percent of mines will continue operating at a loss at a price below $1,200. Demand will quickly outstrip supply and no more gold. If the world can live with that, no problem. But I do not believe this is the case.

I lived in various parts of Asia for over a decade. In every region, I do not know any asians who do not want to own gold. For Chinese/Indonesian/Indian/Thai/Other weddings, the bride gets showered with gold. Thus logic prevails: the more wealth, the more gold.

Next year imo will be very choppy - we can already see OECD cutting forecasts etc. Also pay attention to the VIX index. The more uncertainty, the more people want to hold gold.

My thinking is based on the subjective view above plus my research into the gold movements from west to east and cash cost of mines around the world.

Please do your own research, it is the best kind of research.


Cheers